The requirement to revisit our understanding of the meaning of warfare

 

The 21^st century has seen a considerable number of wars and conflicts between states and also with non-state actors. This scenario has come about due to a diversity of reasons, including the fight over territory and resources, as well as the promotion of nationalist policies such as national grand strategies (Gray, 2012). A consequence is that the mixed results that have come about because of it have led to the conclusion that the nature of war has changed considerably, from one that would normally involve total victory to one where victory is not attained easily and instead, there is a prolongation of the conflict for many years (Freedman, 2017b). War has become an unpredictable venture and can no longer be determined by the results of a single battle, as was previously the case.

One of the most important considerations that tend not to be thought of when planning wars is insurgency. Insurgencies have become some of the most prominent results of wars, as seen through the way that following the military defeat of a state or non-state actors, there is the development of continued guerilla warfare against the victor. The United States experienced this firsthand following the invasion of Afghanistan and the fall of the Baathist government in Iraq in 2003 (Egnell, 2010; Freedman, 2017a; Schmidt & Williams, 2008). Thus, a victory that was all but guaranteed ended up becoming a military presence that has lasted for almost two decades.

Furthermore, other challenges have become a reality in the world of warfare, including hybrid warfare. This was seen firsthand following the overthrow of the Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych, which resulted in the Russian intervention using soldiers in unmarked uniforms known as the little green men (Forsberg & Pursiainen, 2017). These individuals were able to successfully take over the Crimea Peninsula and ensure that Russia maintained its access to the Black Sea. This action can be considered to be pivotal in showing the manner through which war is evolving towards states seeking to promote deniability as they undertake actions against other states.

There also has to be consideration of the potential of new frontiers of conflict opening up. While there has been speculation concerning the coming of a cyber-war for decades, this occurrence could potentially not happen (Rid, 2012). Instead, new frontiers of war such as potential conflict in space could end up creating an environment within which nations across the world will seek to ensure that they achieve supremacy not only in terrestrial, but also extraterrestrial warfare (Johnson, 2019). While the prospects are still far in the future, they are being considered, as seen in the attempt by President Trump to create a space force.

The unpredictable nature of modern warfare means that it would be extremely difficult to predict the course of conflicts. New developments in the area of warfare could end up creating an environment within which the actions of states and non-state actors will not only be difficult to predict and come up with means to counter them, as seen through the way that Daesh in Syria and Iraq had essentially overwhelmed all international efforts until Russian involvement on the side of President Assad of Syria.