Political Polls

 

The use of statistics has become one of the most significant aspects of the modern world. This is because it is used in a diversity of ways, including in making predictions concerning a different aspects of life including predicting human behavior. It is important to note that statistics are also used in the conduct of political polls, with the aim of determining the potential winner of elections or the support that different issues have within the public (Sabato and Yom-Tov 2020). It is noteworthy that because of this consideration, it becomes necessary to make sure that there is the promotion of a scenario where there is the use of accurate statistics.

Political polls have in recent years come to be viewed with suspicion because of the manner through which there have essentially been fewer results that have come out as predicted. This is the case with the 2016 presidential election, where despite Hillary Clinton having been predicted to win by a wide margin, Trump was able to beat her by not only winning a majority of states, but also winning the Electoral College (Campbell et al. 2017). The significance of this can be seen in the manner through which society has essentially lost its trust in polls, despite their continued use by most media outlets.

It is necessary to consider the manner through which statistics have come to play an important role in social issues. This is because of the fact that most humans find it quite difficult to take on a neutral ground on issues and instead are governed by their biases. A consequence of this scenario is that they end up creating an environment within which it becomes necessary to have statistics as a means of verifying the evidence that is present concerning a diversity of issues. Furthermore, it ensures that there is the establishment of a scenario where there is the efficient evaluation of evidence in order to establish facts.

Moreover, statistics can be used to ensure that there is the promotion of a valid argument. This can be seen through the way that individuals in society end up believing arguments that are backed up by statistics rather than pure statements (Depaepe and Simon 2009). This is especially the case in the academic community, where a significant number will often require that there is the presence of statistics in order for evidence to be verified. Furthermore, the presence of statistical evidence is crucial to advancing relevant arguments which can be verified and referenced for future purposes.

The American Electoral System

 

The current electoral system of the United States is one that is disproportionately favorable to the Republican Party. This is mainly because of the manner through which the system is one that essentially favors smaller states over larger ones with higher population numbers (West 2019). This is to such an extent that despite the Democratic candidates winning the popular vote in most elections, they do not often win the Electoral College vote because of the considerably lower votes that they get from the states that they win. It is pertinent to consider the manner through which the electoral system has essentially come to be rigged in favor of the Republicans over the Democrats over the years.

The original intention of the Electoral College was to ensure that smaller states were given an equal voice when it came to the selection of the president. This process is one that allowed them to ensure that they were not only able to advance their interests at par with larger states, but also allowed them to maintain a level of security for themselves within the Union through the maintenance of a balanced electoral system. However, the situation that was prevalent following the establishment of the United States has changed considerably and rather than promoting the interests of the majority of the population, the Electoral College has ended up essentially favoring one party, mainly the Republicans (Jacobson 2007).

The prevalent scenario is that it has created an environment within which even though a majority of the population may have voted for a certain candidate, he might not win the Electoral College vote (Schaller 2015). This scenario is one that has come to favor Republican candidates, as seen in the election of Donald Trump in 2016. The demographic changes in the country has seen more liberal individuals, who are mostly Democratic-leaning, being concentrated in cities and other urban areas while the more conservative, Republican-leaning individuals, who are actually a minority in the country, have become more powerful because of the considerable dominance of the party in mostly rural states.

There is the need to ensure that there is the institution of changes within the electoral system of the United States. This is to such an extent that it will allow for the establishment of a more proportional form of representation in a manner that ensures that presidents are voted for based on the popular vote. It is also necessary to consider the need to ensure the abolishment of the Electoral College, which has become a major hindrance to the effective attainment of the goal of a fair electoral system through not considering the demographic and social changes that have become prevalent in society.

A consideration of European and American Prisons

 

The American justice and sentencing system is considered one of the worst in the world mainly because of the manner through which there is more of a focus on incarceration over other forms of correction as a means of achieving rehabilitation. Individuals in the United States tend to be disproportionately incarcerated with the result being that a considerable number of these not only fail to get reformed, but there is an increase in the levels of recidivism. It has therefore become necessary to make sure that there is the attainment of reforms aimed at rehabilitation over punishment as the goal. This paper makes a comparison of the European sentencing system and that of the United States in order to enhance the view that the United States can learn from its European counterparts concerning how best to handle a diversity of criminal acts, including what is considered the most heinous.

One of the most important factors for the U.S. Sentencing Commission to consider is that the European sentencing system is more advanced. This is because countries such as Germany and the Netherlands focus more on rehabilitation than mass incarceration, as is the case in the United States (Subramanian & Shames, 2013). In the United States, there has been more of a focus on punishment, which has resulted in a scenario where individuals who commit even the most petty of crimes or offenses end up being incarcerated, with the result being that the individuals involved become worse off than would otherwise have been the case.

The sentencing systems of the Netherlands and Germany are centered around the concept to making sure that there is the promotion of rehabilitation. This is in contrast to the United States, where there is the promotion of retribution are at the center of sentencing (Subramanian & Shames, 2013). A consequence of this scenario is that rehabilitation and reform in the United States has become a secondary goal. The German sentencing system is enshrined in law and it states that the rehabilitation of inmates should be the primary goal. In this way, it has become pertinent to make sure that there is the promotion of a scenario where there is the attainment of the goal of rehabilitating criminals over punishing them to ensure effective reintegration to society.

Furthermore, in the United States, fines are used in combination with other sanctions. This is not the case with European countries such as the Netherlands, where fines are often standalone sentences and are not combined with other punishments (Subramanian & Shames, 2013). In fact, in this country, fines are preferred over prison sentences, which is significant because it shows the manner through which the justice system has moved on towards ensuring the use of proportional sentencing to the crime that was committed. Because of this, courts are required to provide special reasons for making use of incarceration over fines.

In Germany, the fine is also considered to be an effective means of rehabilitating criminals. In this country, the day fine approach is used, and it is done in such a way that fines are imposed daily in units representing a day in incarceration. This sentencing is designed to make sure that there is the promotion of a scenario where there is the achievement of the goal of making offenders, especially those who have committed serious crimes, understand the gravity of their crimes. It further allows offenders from different economic conditions to ensure that they are able to have the same impact from fines as punishment for their actions.

Another significant different in the sentencing process is the length of the incarceration that is imposed on offenders. Generally, the European sentencing system is one that allows for lower incarceration length for crimes than is the case in the United States. These shorter sentences are significant because they ensure that there is the promotion of a scenario where offenders are able to rehabilitate and rejoin society. Thus, most of the incarcerated individuals in Germany tend to have sentences of less than 2 years, which is significant because it allows for a focus on rehabilitation over punishment, as seen in the United States where longer sentences even for minor offenses are the norm.

The incarceration rates in the United States soared in the 1980s despite an environment of relatively stable or declining crime rates (Kuhlmann, 2011). A consequence of this scenario is that it has led to a scenario where the correctional institutions of the nation ended up abandoning the goal of rehabilitation and instead, there was the advancement of the need to control the prison population. Consequently, there were little efforts aimed at reforming the prison population, and instead, there was an attempt to ensure that incarceration became more punitive. This situation left many prisoners unprepared to rejoin society, and it is the reason behind the high recidivism rates in the United States when compared to European countries such as Germany and the Netherlands, where the major focus is rehabilitation. The fact that the United States has essentially turned incarceration into punishment over rehabilitation has allowed for the continued growth of its prison population as well as the high levels of recidivism.

The United States has developed a system within which individuals are personally blamed for their criminal behavior. There is a failure to consider that the socioeconomic conditions prevalent in the lives of individuals could be the main reason behind their resorting to a life in crime (Kury, 2019). It is necessary to make sure that there is an understanding of the socioeconomic background of the individuals involved prior to sentencing; a fact that is always considered in European nations. The significance of this circumstance is that the United States has ended up creating an environment within which there is not only a massive incarcerated population, but most of this population is not reformed and therefore unable to easily fit in with society once released. It is therefore essential to consider that there is the need for a correctional system that is not only aimed at the punishment of offenders, but also one that allows for rehabilitation to such an extent that recidivism is brought to an end.

The deficiencies in the American criminal justice system have come about because of the ‘tough on crime’ policy. This policy is significant because it has created an environment within which members of poor, minority communities have ended up being disproportionately incarcerated to such an extent that many of these individuals end up showing considerable recidivism (Marble, 2018). The most disenfranchised individuals in American society by the criminal justice system are those from the African American community. The members of this community have essentially been disproportionately represented in American prisons because of racial profiling that assumes that they are guilty under all circumstances. In this way, it has become necessary to make sure that there is the promotion of a situation where there is the adoption of social reforms that allow members of this community to overcome the devastation that incarceration has had on it. The adoption of the European system in the United States could ensure that there is the attainment of the goal of rehabilitation and a reduction in the use of incarceration. Thus, not only would rehabilitation be possible, but offenders would be allowed to take on more productive roles in society.

In conclusion, the discussion above has made a comparison of the European sentencing system and that of the United States in order to enhance the view that the United States can learn from its European counterparts concerning how best to handle a diversity of criminal acts. It has shown that the criminal justice system in Europe, specifically Germany and the Netherlands, has a lower incarceration and recidivism rate because of the focus on rehabilitation over punishment. The punishment of crime in the United States is a focus that has come about mainly because of the considerable increase in the prison population. This has created an environment within which control of the population has become more important than rehabilitation; resulting in a failure to prepare these individuals to rejoin society. Thus, individuals that have been incarcerated in the United States have little chance of returning to a normal life; requiring that there are reforms aimed at making sure that their interests, and those of society, are protected.