Introduction
In recent years, China has risen to
the status of one of the most influential countries in the world. Not only is
it a member of the United Nations Security Council, but it is also the second
largest economy in the world after the United States. The swift rise of this
country has been accompanied with significant military modernization as China
seeks to increasingly assert itself in the East Asian region. The country has
been able to ensure that it undertakes initiatives aimed at enhancing its
status both regionally and internationally to such an extent that it has
succeeded in making sure that it becomes one of the most important players on
earth today. The rapid growth that China has experienced, however, has also led
to a number of significant challenges. Among these is the need to determine how
to keep a balance between domestic and international politics, as well as the
advancement of it agenda towards the achievement of its rightful status in the
East Asia region. In order to achieve this goal, it has become essential to
make sure that it faces threats to its stability both internally and
externally. As a one-party state with ambitions to ensure that it creates a
unified nation in order to more effectively handle crises brought about by
external forces, China has essentially been forced to create a balance on how
it deals with both internal and external threats. A consequence has been China
has received considerable condemnation, especially from western countries, and
some countries in East Asia as well, when it comes to the manner through which
it handles such moments of crisis. This is especially considering that China
has become more aggressive in asserting its influence and rights both
internally and externally, as seen in the South China Sea as well as its
actions to quell dissent in Xinjiang province.
One of the biggest factors when considering
China’s response to internal and external threats is that its policies are
based on the desire not to repeat past mistakes. This is especially considering
incidents in the nineteenth century when China showed considerable weakness
that was spurred by internal political disputes. The result was that western
nations took advantage of China’s weakness during the Opium Wars; resulting in
humiliating terms being put on the country. The result of these incidents is
that the Chinese Communist Party (CPC) has sought to make sure that they do not
happen again and this is to such an extent that it has employed all measures
possible to prevent any domestic conflicts from providing external actors with
opportunities to interfere in Chinese domestic affairs. A consequence, which is
extremely prominent in the making of national policy today, is that China does
not separate its external threats from internal ones, with policies meant to
handle the latter being formulated in such a way that prevents the former from
coming about. In addition, it seems that China is also determined to ensure
that it brings about a situation where the status of the country as the most
powerful nation in the region is reasserted. This is especially considering
that China, in its recent actions concerning addressing territorial disputes,
has made use of Chinese imperial maps as a means of making its claims over
certain territories (Yahuda 446). The result has been that it has led to
considerable conflict with some of its neighbors, most notably Japan, Vietnam,
and the Philippines; all of which have similar claims to those of China. Moreover,
the Chinese imperial territorial claims also included Tibet and Xinjiang, and
these were essentially brought under Chinese control following the CPC’s
takeover of China. Despite these efforts, Tibet and Xinjiang remain among the
most significant internal threats to China, and the Chinese central government
has worked hard for years to make sure that these threats are allayed. This
paper makes an analysis of some of the most significant internal and external
threats that affect China and how this country is handling them in order to
ensure its stability as well as protecting its national interests.
Internal Threats
China
faces a considerable number of internal threats and these have for the most
part come about because of the policies adopted by the CPC. These threats have,
despite many efforts by the central government only grown over the years and it
seems that more efforts have to be put in place in order to mitigate them. The
ascendency of Xi Jinping to leadership of the CPC can be considered to be one
of the most significant events in modern Chinese history because it marked a
point where the leader of the CPC sought to concentrate all power in the state,
including over the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), among other major factions,
in his own hands. This is a process that has brought about considerable change
in Chinese society, especially in the manner through which Xi has presided over
the war on corruption that has led to thousands of prosecutions, both among the
elite and local CPC leaders. Xi’s style can be considered to be more assertive,
which is important when considering the way that China is currently handling
the major internal crises in Tibet and Xinjiang (Economy 80). These threats
cannot be underestimated because if China does not handle them with care, it is
likely that it would be a blow not only to Chinese sense of nationhood, but
also spell an end of the CPC as the main guarantor of Chinese national
interests. The Xinjiang crisis has also led to a situation where there is a
constant threat of domestic terrorism and this has made the Chinese government
to become extremely wary of an increase of such incidents. The achievement of
the goal of completely pacifying Xinjiang, as well as Tibet, could be a boon
for China because it will have decisively brought an end to major internal
threats that it has had to combat over the years.
Tibet
Tibet
is a region that has had a long and illustrious history and was once the center
of one of the most powerful states in East and Central Asia. However, with the
decline of the Tibetan empire, it soon came under the control of China, but
while this was the case, it enjoyed considerable autonomy. Even following the
Mongol conquest of China, and the formation of the Yuan dynasty, the latter
incorporated Tibet and ensured that it had a level of autonomy, although this
autonomy was strictly controlled. This situation continued until after the fall
of the Qing dynasty in the beginning of the twentieth century, when Tibet
declared independence from China. However, Tibetan independence would only be a
brief respite from Chinese control, because following the Chinese Civil War and
the coming to power of the CPC, Chinese authority over Tibet was swiftly
reestablished in 1950. While China was initially willing to ensure that
Tibetans achieved a level of social and economic reforms, this policy was
swiftly reversed following the 1959 Tibetan Rebellion which saw the 14th
Dalai Lama flee to India. The result was that rather than continuing their
initial policy, the Chinese adopted one that focused solely on preventing
separatism in Tibet (Smart). This policy is one that has been ongoing since
them and it has led to a situation where China is finding itself in positions
that it did not expect, as seen in the manner through the self-immolations that
have been taking place in Tibet in recent years. The actions of those individuals
desiring the independence of Tibet can be considered a failure of Chinese
policy when it came to the integration of the region into China. In addition,
the heavy-handed approach to independence as well as the near lack of
improvement in the lives of locals may be a reason why there is greater
agitation for independence. The manner through which China handles this threat,
especially if there will be any change, will determine whether it will be
reduced or only get worse.
International Support for the Dalai Lama
One of the most significant issues that come
about because of the threat from Tibet is the considerable international
support that the Dalai Lama enjoys. The last leader of an independent Tibet,
and the leader of its government-in-exile has essentially been provided with an
international platform by many countries across the world, including the United
States, and this has raised awareness concerning the situation in Tibet. This
platform has been provided despite considerable Chinese protests, and has
promoted the Dalai Lama’s agenda in such a way that Tibet has come to be seen
as a victim of Chinese occupation (Bandeira 67). The international support
received by Tibet’s government in exile is significant because to China, it is
seen as a direct internal threat. This is especially considering, as mentioned
above, the Chinese fear of foreign interference in its domestic affairs. China
has for the most part invested heavily in making sure that Tibet is an integral
part of its territory and it has sought to bring about a situation where it has
absolute control over Tibetan social, economic and political life. One of the
most important actions undertaken by the Chinese has been to make sure that the
legitimacy of the Dalai Lama is disputed in Tibet through its raising of a
rival spiritual leader to act as the head of the autonomous region. In
addition, China has sought to make sure that it increasingly Sinicizes Tibetans
by encouraging them to show loyalty first to the China and the CPC before their
own region. It has also involved the conversion of religious teaching towards a
focus on the ethnic unity of all Chinese, no matter their ethnic origins, so
that it can be possible to achieve a truly socialist society. These efforts,
which have especially been encouraged by President Xi, have yet to be studied and
their effects properly, but it is hoped that they will become clearer in the
coming years.
External Support for Independence (India)
China’s fear of foreign intervention in its
domestic affairs has led to a situation where it seeks to ensure that it
prevent any such attempts. A consequence has been that China, especially
following its annexation of Tibet, has sought to bring about a scenario where
its national interests are protected at all costs. The border dispute that
China has had with India in the South Tibet and Aksai Chin regions can be
considered a potential trigger of Indian interference in Chinese internal
affairs. This is especially the case considering that China and India went to
war in 1968 over the Aksai Chin region; a war that China won and asserted its
claims. The war seems to have also been triggered by India’s attempts to
support and encourage the Tibetan independence movement, which led to China’s
swift response (Ranjan 101). A result is that while the border dispute is still
ongoing, China has become wary of India’s making attempts to challenge its
authority in Tibet. In addition, the fact that India hosts the Dalai Lama is
seen as a security threat by China because his presence is what has essentially
fanned the flames of agitation for independence by Tibetan nationalists. This
threat has led to China’s undertaking a policy that promotes the advancement of
national interests over regional interests to such an extent that a
considerable part of its policies in Tibet are aimed at making the Tibetans
loyal citizens of the People’s Republic of China. This process, however, still
has a long way to go, especially considering that China has for centuries not
been successful in integrating ethnic minorities in such a way that made them
truly feel like a part of the nation. The lack of proper initiatives to
integrate ethnic minorities can be seen in the case of Tibet, which despite
having, at varying periods over the centuries, been a part of China, have
essentially maintained their ethnic, religious, and national identity.
Xinjiang
Xinjiang
tends to feature prominently when discussing China in the contemporary world
because it is one of the most restive regions in the country. This is because
among the Uighurs majority, China is seen as an occupying power, and there has
been a strong movement aimed at bringing about the independence of Xinjiang as
East Turkestan (Klimeš 162). A result is that China sees the region as a
serious internal threat that has to be dealt with swiftly in order to ensure
that Chinese control is maintained. China bases its claims over Xinjiang on its
century’s old occupation of the area, which has brought about a situation where
there have been a lot of interpretations concerning the historical facts. Most
Chinese scholars state that Xinjiang was an area that was an essential part of
China since the Tang and Han dynasties and that rather than being the natives
of the region, the Uighurs and other minorities only came into the region as
foreign invaders. This claim is vigorously challenged by the Uighurs, who,
despite evidence to the contrary, state that they have been living in Xinjiang
for thousands of years, and that they were the originators of civilization in
the region. These conflicts of interpretation have led to a situation where it
is difficult for the Xinjiang crisis to be solved effectively because the major
parties in the conflict have not attempted to make use of dialogue to both
achieve a solution that is satisfactory to both. Therefore, China has ended up
viewing Xinjiang as a region deserving special attention because it is one of
the most important ways through which to make sure that it does not get
overtaken by events; leading to a failure to protect what it considers its
sovereign territory from separatist movements. Despite these efforts, Chinese
methods of maintaining its rule over Xinjiang have received a lot of criticism
internationally.
Pacification of Uighurs and Other Minorities
in Xinjiang
One
of the most fundamental actions undertaken by the Chinese government has been
to bring about the pacification of the people of Xinjiang. This has sometimes
involved the swift utilization of force aimed at discouraging separatist
movements while at the same time encouraging loyalty to China. The separatist
movements are considered a direct internal threat to China and this is to such
an extent that the government has taken actions aimed at making sure that those
suspected of being a part of these movements are punished severely. A
significant aspect of this situation can be seen in the manner through which
the Chinese government has dealt harshly with those suspected of taking part in
terrorist activities on behalf of separatist groups. These individuals have
tended to be sentenced to death as a means of serving as a lesson to their
compatriots who would prefer to separate from China. Despite these efforts, the
major source of problems in Xinjiang stem from ethnicity and religion. This is
especially considering that the Uighur are not only ethnically Turkic, but also
practice Islam, rather than the religions practiced by Han Chinese, such as
Buddhism, Taoism, or Confucianism (Friedrichs 55). A result has been that the
Chinese government has sought to exercise control over the religious practices
of the Muslim population in Xinjiang as a means of its pacification process. This
process, which has essentially denied the Uighur Muslim community its religious
freedom, has been tailored to discourage those practices of Islam that are
considered unifying factors for the community. Consequently, rather than
pacifying these people, recent years have seen increasing radicalization; a
scenario that China is perhaps not ready to face. The ethnic differences
between the Turkic Uighur and the Han Chinese is one of the most contentious
issues in Xinjiang, and the attempts by the latter to pacify the former is a
threat that the Chinese government has to deal with diplomatically in order for
peace and stability to be maintained in the region.
Continued Disadvantage to Local People
despite Affirmative Action
The
CPC has undertaken actions aimed at promoting the interests of minority groups
in China. Xinjiang is not exception to this policy and this is especially
considering that over the years, affirmative action policies such as the
promotion of local languages through local newspapers, being given preference
in job acquisition, as well as having an unlimited number of children and
polygamous marriages for Muslim minorities have been put in place. However,
despite these policies being in place, there has been a deficit in tangible
effects because a considerable number of the local people of Xinjiang still lag
considerably behind their Han Chinese counterparts. These individuals are not
able to enjoy the same benefits as the Han Chinese because despite the
affirmative action policies, the CPC has maintained considerable control over
how they are implemented. A result has been that the Han Chinese settlers in
Xinjiang are still provided with more privileges than their local counterparts,
and this is to such an extent that they have ended up in a situation where they
have a great advantage over the locals (Tang 346). The economic disparities
between the Han Chinese and the local Uighur majority has had the effect of
leading to a sense of alienation in their own land to such an extent that it is
feeding the flames of rebellion and separation from China. The considerable
mineral wealth found in the region, which would have been best utilized to
advance the economic status of the local population, has mostly ended up
benefiting the Han Chinese; showing a failure by the Chinese government to
consider that an improvement of economic status for the Uighur under Chinese
rule, would go a long way towards reducing the separatism prevalent in the
region. The result has been an increase in instances of domestic terrorism in
China, which are a sign of the considerable unrest taking place within the
Xinjiang region.
Domestic Terrorism
In
recent years, China has come to face significant problems with domestic
terrorism, and these have been prominent because most of them have been
connected to the Xinjiang separatist movement. These incidents have taken place
with increasing frequency to such an extent that there have been questions
asked concerning the effects of Chinese policy in Xinjiang, and perhaps if it
could be possible to change them in order to make the people of this region
feel an inclusive part of China. Terrorist activities within the Chinese
borders are a direct threat to the state because it worsens the political and
economic situation in the country. It brings about a situation where there is a
reduction of confidence by the international community to conduct business in
China because there is a constant threat of an attack taking place. Most of
these attacks have been inspired by the international jihadi movements that
have taken root in Central Asia, especially coming from such countries as
Afghanistan and Pakistan. These advocate for violent means to bring about an
end of Chinese rule over Xinjiang and the establishment of an Islamic state to
replace it. The events that have been taking place in the Middle East in recent
years, especially in Syria and Iraq with the establishment of ISIS, have had a
great influence on advocating for violent action against what is considered the
Chinese occupation of Xinjiang. China has come to perceive the spread of jihadi
ideology to Xinjiang as a serious threat and this has been to such an extent
that it has been more than willing to join in the international war on terror. However,
the Chinese actions have received considerable criticism because its
strike-hard tactics in fighting domestic terrorism has essentially become the
same as its efforts to fight separatism in Xinjiang (Odgaard and Nielsen 535).
The fight against terror has become an excuse to crash any rebellion or dissent
in Xinjiang without undertaking any tangible reforms that improve the lives of
the locals to such an extent that they renounce their ambitions for
independence. Therefore, if China does not stop actions that continuously
alienate the Uighur population in Xinjiang, it is possible that incidents of
domestic terrorism will continue being a challenge for many years to come, and
this is especially considering that the younger Uighur generation has the
potential of becoming more radicalized than their predecessors.
Hong
Kong
Hong
Kong is a territory that was under British rule for a long period and at the
time of its return to China in 1997; it had essentially become one of the most
cosmopolitan cities of the world. In addition, it was quite stable economically
and was one of the most prominent financial and business capitals in the globe.
When it gained independence under Chinese rule, there was the expectation that
Hong Kong would essentially become a democracy that would not only be a model
for other countries in the region, but also for China as well. The One Country,
Two Systems policy was one of the most pivotal steps that were aimed at
bringing about a situation where Hong Kong would become a part of China without
losing any of its values and for many years, it seemed to work (Fong 725).
However, the increasing CPC involvement in the affairs of Hong Kong has led to
a considerable reduction of the democratic space that its people had enjoyed,
and there led to massive protests over the years. These protests have been
aimed at forcing the Chinese government to respect the will of the people of
Hong Kong and to allow them to select their own leadership without
interference. Moreover, there is also a movement that has increasingly gained
strength that proposes complete independence from China, and this has put the
latter in a difficult situation both internally and externally. The CPC has
essentially based its legitimacy on the economic advancements that China has
seen over the years as well as the protection of Chinese national interests.
However, the party was not democratically elected and Hong Kong’s demands could
have serious ramifications for the future of the CPC in the whole of China. While
the Chinese government has taken very measured steps in seeking to resolve the
Hong Kong crisis, it has headed towards the direction of asserting itself in
Hong Kong like never before. The Hong Kong protests can be considered to be a
test of the resilience of the CPC and could end up being a more serious threat
than it currently is if the Chinese government acts in a manner that puts into
doubt its legitimacy.
External Threats
Like
its internal threats, China’s external threats are also taken quite seriously
by its government to such an extent that considerable investment has been put
in place to deal with them. As a rising global political, economic, and
military power, China faces a considerable number of external threats that are
both long-term and short-term. A consequence is that China has suddenly found
itself in potential conflicts and disputes in which it would not have involved
itself a few decades ago. However, the need to protect its national interests
have forced China to undertake actions that while in some circles of the
international community are considered aggressive, in others, they are
considered legitimate concerns which have to be addressed (Chong 81). The rise
of China has taken place at a time when the United States, a superpower that is
on the decline, has shifted its focus from the Middle East back to East Asia as
a means of reestablishing its dominance in the region. Despite its decline, the
United States is still the most powerful country in the world and if it were to
go into an economic or military conflict with China, it is likely to be the
winner. However, China’s growing military and economic capabilities have pushed
it towards challenging American hegemony in East Asia, and this could have
serious ramifications in future. Moreover, a more assertive foreign policy
under President Xi has led China into disputes with some of its neighbors, such
as the Philippines, and Vietnam, as well as India. However, the most direct
external threat to China at this time is that stemming from North Korea, and
its determination to acquire a nuclear arsenal. This threat is coupled with
that of the remilitarization of Japan, which has come about directly as a
result of the North Korea crisis. It is therefore appropriate to address each
of these external threats beginning with that posed by North Korea.
North
Korea
When
it comes to international notoriety, North Korea has in recent years become one
of the most popular candidates. This country has never hidden its nuclear
ambitions, which it considers essential to promote the survival of its regime (Anderson
1). North Korea is a country that came to existence following the end of the
Second World War when the United States forces and the Soviet Union forces
liberated the Korean Peninsula from Japanese colonization. North Korea emerged
as a communist state in the area that was roughly occupied by the Soviet Union
while South Korea emerged as a capitalist state in the area of American
occupation. The two Korean states went to war starting in 1950 with the support
of their respective allies. North Korea was supported by China and Russia while
the south was supported by the United States and its allies. The result was a
stalemate and a truce that was made in 1953 and has remained the status quo to
this day. Thus, while South Korea ended up evolving into a democratic state, as
well as one of the most prosperous countries in the world, North Korea has
remained a communist regime that has become more oppressive towards its people
and the subject of numerous international sanctions that have essentially
crippled its economy. In East Asia, the sole reliable ally that North Korea has
is China, which has essentially supported its fellow communist regime through
maintaining trade links as well as continued diplomatic connections that have
ensured its continued survival. However, its nuclear ambitions as well as its
defiance against United Nations resolutions and sanctions, some of which even
China has backed, has led to China having to reassess its relationship with
North Korea (Cha). Despite this reassessment, letting go of North Korea would
not be an easy task for China to undertake because North Korea is a very
important state to China at a regional geopolitical level. Therefore,
maintaining its alliance with North Korea means that China exposes itself to a
number of external threats that it might have to tackle in the near future.
Increasingly Erratic Behavior of North Korea
North
Korea is currently ruled by a young and inexperienced leader whose actions seem
aimed at ensuring the continued survival of his regime. The North Korean
leader, Kim Jong Un, has since the beginning of his rule used very undiplomatic
language when addressing issues of international concern over his country. He
has defied all actions undertaken by the United Nations Security Council to
prevent North Korea from obtaining nuclear weapons and the ability to deliver
them using missile technology. Under his leadership, North Korea has undertaken
to ensure that it not only carries out nuclear tests, but also missile tests as
well (Baker). These tests have put the entire region on high alert, with
potential targets such as South Korea and Japan being extremely concerned. One
of the most important reasons behind these concerns, especially on the Japanese
side, is that North Korea still blames Japan for the oppression of the Korean
people during the 35 years Korea was under its rule. South Korea, on the other
hand, is concerned because while the Korean War ended with a truce in 1953, the
war itself was not officially ended because no peace treaty was signed (Grisafi
and Waldron). Therefore, it has become essential to make sure that there is the
advancement of means through which to prevent North Korea from making a
devastating attack on either of these countries, including remilitarization, as
in the case of Japan, and permission to develop its own nuclear arsenal, in the
case of South Korea. Moreover, North Korea has also taken the unprecedented
action of threatening to target the United States in its own territory if it
continues to threaten military action against North Korea. These statements, at
the backdrop of its rapidly advancing weapons technologies, has raised serious
concerns in the United States, which has stated that all options, including
military action, are on the table when dealing with North Korea. All of these
incidents have placed China in an extremely awkward position because it has
been put under a lot of pressure to rein in its North Korean client.
Potential American Military Action
The
potential of American military action against North Korea because of its erratic
behavior is one of the most direct external threats to China. This is because
such an operation would involve a considerable part of American military might
being deployed in East Asia. China has lived in fear of American attempts to
contain it for decades and this is especially considering its growing influence
in the region at the expense of the United States. The United States currently
has military bases in Japan and South Korea, and has had a long-standing
relationship with Taiwan. A result has been that China has been extremely
suspicious of American intentions towards it, and in order to counter what it
perceives as American attempts at containment, has sought to bring about a
situation where it uses its considerable economic influence to pry some
countries in East Asia from the American influence. Therefore, North Korea’s
erratic behavior has the potential of leading the United States to undertake
direct military action against it and this would mean that American forces
would be within easy reach of China. This is a threat that China has sought to
address swiftly, as seen in recent months with its participating in the
imposition of new sanctions on North Korea in order to ensure that it complies
with UN resolutions (Tao 6). China has in addition warned the United States not
to bring any more of its forces into the region, especially close to North
Korea because to do so would be unproductive. It seems that this statement is a
veiled warning that China will not appreciate it if the United States were to
attack North Korea; perhaps even going as far as undertaking its Korean War
commitment to protect North Korea against American attacks. If the United
States were to undertake military action against North Korea, it is likely that
China will also be pulled into the conflict because it has a vested interest in
ensuring the retention of the status quo on the Korean Peninsula.
Maintaining Korean Peninsula Status Quo
It
is in Chinese interest to ensure that it maintains the status quo on the Korean
Peninsula because it is one of the most important means through which it can
secure its national security interests. The United States maintains a military
base in South Korea, and one of the biggest concerns for China is the potential
of a collapse of North Korea that could lead to its takeover by South Korea.
Such a scenario would mean that the United States will have attained access to
the Chinese border; a situation that would lead China to feel even more
contained than it is currently. It is therefore essential for China to ensure
that this event does not come to pass, and this is the reason why, despite not
agreeing with North Korea’s policies, China has continued to support the
survival of its regime (Oh 27). This is an extremely important situation for
China because it has adopted a pragmatic policy which, while distasteful, is
aimed at protecting its national security. Therefore, as mentioned above, China
has a vested interest in the continued survival of North Korea and it is likely
to undertake any action that it deems necessary to achieve this objective.
Therefore, in a situation where the United States attempts to invade North
Korea, it is possible that it will also have to fight with China. Such a
conflict could end up being devastating for both sides because it would involve
the two largest economies in the world in addition to very advanced military
hardware. However, the likelihood of China losing is extremely high because the
United States is still militarily superior. Thus, by seeking to maintain the
status quo on the Korean Peninsula, China might end up putting itself in danger
of a conflict with the United States. A conflict with the United States over
North Korea is a potential threat to China and the latter has to act fast to
ensure that such an incident does not take place.
South
China Sea
The
South China Sea (SCS) region has become one of the most contentious
international issues involving China over the last few years. This is because
China has actively sought to assert itself in this area in a bid to secure its
national interests at the expense of some of its neighbors. A result has been
that the United States has openly challenged China’s claims of sovereignty over
the SCS and has taken actively taken steps to bring about an end to Chinese establishment
of its control over the region. China has placed historical claims over some
parts of the SCS that are located in extremely important shipping lanes that
control a significant chunk of the global trade. China’s claims are based on
imperial Chinese maps that depicted the area as being a part of the Chinese
Empire. The increasingly assertive way through which China has sought to
enforce its claims can be considered a part of its initiative aimed at securing
itself from external threats through making sure that its uses it military and
economic might to advance its claims. It is also likely that it has adopted
this foreign policy so that it can correct the historical injustices and
humiliation that it faced following the its internal weaknesses that made some
European powers force terms on it (McHale). Therefore, China is seeking to
ensure that it not only returns itself to dominance over the SCS, but also
keeps foreign powers, such as the United States, which has exercised hegemony
for decades, out of the region. The achievement of this objective would ensure
that China not only ensures its national security, but also rises to become one
of the most powerful and influential countries not only in East Asia, but also
in the world. However, it has to deal with potential threats that might result
from its growing assertiveness in the SCS.
The United States
The
United States has exercised continuous hegemony over the SCS since the end of
the Second World War and has been able to ensure that its navy has access
throughout the area. Having a high level of control over this lucrative
shipping lane has ensured that the United States essentially has considerable
leverage in the SCS. However, China has increasingly seen American hegemony
over the region as a direct threat to it because the United States, despite being
the hegemon in the East Asia, and specifically SCS region, is still a foreign
power. China, on the other hand, has had a historical claim over the area for
centuries, with the result that it has ended up in a situation where it is
seeking to turn these claims into reality. Its growing economic and military
power has provided China with the confidence it needs to challenge American
hegemony in East Asia and this has been to such an extent that it has
undertaken to construct artificial islands in the SCS in order to be better
able to project its naval power. The United States has responded to Chinese
assertiveness by sending out its naval vessels to areas that are claimed by
China in a bid to challenge the latter’s claims in the SCS. The events taking
place between the navies of the United States and China in the SCS can be
considered a direct threat to China and there is a potential of the situation
getting out of hand, especially where the United States makes the decision to
send its naval vessels to Chinese areas and they get attacked in response (Babb
15). Such a situation could be disastrous for China because it could end up
getting into a conflict with the United States, which is one of its biggest
trading partners in the world.
The Philippines and Vietnam (Military
Modernization)
China’s
rapidly growing influence in the SCS region has sparked a lot of concerns among
countries within the region that they might become the victims of its
considerably greater might. This is especially the case considering that
countries such as the Philippines and Vietnam also have claims in the region
and this is to such an extent that whenever China makes a move in a territory
claimed by them, they feel even more threatened. A result has been that these
countries, among others in the region, have sought to undertake rapid military
modernization measures aimed at making sure that they protect their territorial
integrity (Chao 8). Therefore, while China might feel justified to ensure that
it enforces its suzerainty over parts of the SCS, there is a potential that the
costs will increasingly become greater in its future endeavors. Moreover there
is a potential that its aggressive policies in the SCS could alienate its
neighbors to such an extent that they seek to make military alliances with the
United States in order to have a power that is capable of helping them defend
themselves on their side. The formation of military alliances of the same type
as the United States has with South Korea and Japan, could have serious
ramifications for China because its room to maneuver in the region will be
greatly limited. Moreover, if China does not soften its approach to the SCS
issue, it is likely that it might end up facing a string of hostile neighbors
that will not be good for it in the long term. This threat can only be
effectively tackled diplomatically, meaning that it will be essential for
China, rather than making use of its naval power in the SCS, actively seeks to
engage with its neighbors so that a peaceful settlement that satisfies all
parties can be achieved.
Territorial
Disputes
China
has among the longest standing territorial disputes in the world with some
originating prior to 1945. These disputes have sometimes led to some very tense
situations between China and its neighbors to such an extent that even those
countries that had long-term relationships with it, such as Vietnam, are
increasingly becoming wary of its influence in the region. China’s fight to
retain its territorial integrity as well as to obtain what it considers its
rightful territory has sometimes led to open conflicts with some of its
neighbors such as India and Vietnam, against which it has had wars. China has
yet to solve most of its territorial disputes with its neighbors and this has
led to a situation where its growing assertiveness as well as its willingness
to use its military has made some of its neighbors come to the conclusion that
China is an aggressive power bent on changing the status quo of East Asia. Its
most noteworthy disputes have been with India and Japan, two very powerful
countries on either end of China that have very strong claims on some
territories that are also claimed by China. While these disputes have been
taking place for decades, China and its neighbors have been able to ensure that
they address the issues involved diplomatically. However, there has been no
breakthrough in any of its disputes. The continued Chinese claims have been
based on historical occupation, and this are claims that can be considered a
part of CPC propaganda aimed at wooing nationalist support at home. However,
such actions also give it very little room to maneuver because if the CPC is
seen by its people as making territorial concessions, it has the potential of
losing its legitimacy. Therefore, China has been forced to undertake a hard
stance in territorial disputes with its neighbors, which could lead to serious
external threats to the country.
Japan
Japan
is one of the nations with which China has some territorial disputes that
originate from the end of the Second World War with the defeat of Japan.
Historically, Japan is one of the countries that was most influenced by Chinese
culture for centuries, and this was to such an extent that members of the
Japanese nobility often went to China to study. In addition, China and Japan
were also closely linked by religion, especially Buddhism, which was brought to
Japan by Chinese missionaries. However, major conflict between these countries
did not begin until the modern era during the First and Second Sino-Japanese
Wars that ended up leading to the loss of territory by China, which was the
less developed of the two militarily, as well as the occupation of large parts
of the country by Imperial Japan. The result was that centuries of cooperation
between these two nations came to an end, and the development of a situation
where Chinese begun to have a considerable number of grievances against Japan.
In the contemporary world, Japan has increasingly come to be viewed as a direct
threat to China and its territorial integrity, and this is especially the case
when it comes to islands in the East China Sea, such as the Diaoyu Islands, as
well as the potential of the remilitarization of Japan, which would mean that
the latter will have the ability to make preemptive military strikes to protect
its interests.
The
Diaoyu Islands are located in the East China Sea and have been administered by
Japan since 1972, when they were handed over to its jurisdiction by the United
States. These islands were captured by the latter during the Second World War
from Japan, which had occupied them during the height of its Asian empire. The
Diaoyus are also claimed by China and Taiwan, and this is one of the points
about which the latter agree with one another; that the Diaoyu Islands are an
integral part of Taiwan and therefore a part of China. Therefore, the decision
by the United States to hand over administration of the islands to Japan was an
extremely controversial one and led to protests from both Taiwan and China (Gan
685). China considers these islands to be an integral part of its territory and
despite never occupied them before, China believes that it has a better claim
to them, especially considering that Japan only absorbed these islands
following the First Sino-Japanese War. It is therefore a matter of national
interest as well as international status for China to maintain that the Diaoyu
Islands are a part of its territory. In recent years, there have been attempts
by Japan to survey and develop these islands has led to massive protests from
China and this has been to an extent that there has been a cooling down of
diplomatic relations between these two nations. In addition, Chinese vessels
often travel into waters surrounding the Diaoyus, and this has also led to
Japanese warnings that they are only making the situation between the two
countries worse. The dispute over the Diaoyu Islands has the potential of
leading to real conflict between China and Japan, and considering that Japan is
not only allied to the United States, but is also considering remilitarization,
it could swiftly escalate to a very high stakes conflict.
The
potential remilitarization of Japan has been brought about because of the
considerable threats to the country from North Korea. Statements from the North
Korean regime as well as missile tests that have come extremely close to
Japanese territory has convinced some in the Japanese political establishment
that it is time to remilitarize the country. The demilitarization of Japan was
conducted following the end of the Second World War under the occupation of the
United States. It was included in the Japanese constitution in order to ensure
that the country did not end up undertaking the aggressive military tactics
that had led to its conquest of a significant number of its neighbors and the
deaths of millions that came about as a result. However, in recent years, Japan
has sought to revise this policy because while it maintains a military for
defensive purposes, it is not allowed to undertake any preemptive strikes
against potential threats. Therefore, the remilitarization of Japan can be
considered a direct threat to China especially considering that number of territorial
disputes that these countries have. If China were to seek to advance its claims
more aggressively, them it is likely that a major conflict with a remilitarized
Japan could arise; making the costs of settling disputes between them much
higher. A remilitarized Japan could also seek to make its own claims in the
region at the expense of China and this could have dire consequences for China
because it is determined to become the dominant power in the East Asia region.
India
India
and China have had a long history of interaction between their peoples and
governments spanning millennia. These two countries also have the highest
number of people in the world, and have in recent years collaborated at the
international level, as seen in their being members of the BRICS countries.
However, following Indian independence and the takeover of China by the CPC,
India and China had some border disputes that essentially led the two countries
to war. It created a situation where they were extremely vigorous in the protection
of their national interests, as seen in the manner through which they went to
war. This border dispute is still ongoing, but both countries seem determined
to solve their problems diplomatically. Despite the latter situation being the
case, China still considers India to be among its biggest threats in the
region. This is especially considering that India has not only become a rival
emerging power to China, but it has also had rapid technological developments
that have also come to be applied to its military. India is one of the few
countries in East Asia that has the resources and population to compete
directly with China, and the latter, despite cooperating with India in various
fields, remains wary of it. Through the development of its military might, as
well as having experienced rapid economic growth, India is projected to have
the capability of overtaking China economically in the coming years, and might
just get assertive in its new found power and challenge China in various areas
of contention.
One
of the most significant areas of contention between India and China that could
be a threat to the latter is the Aksai Chin region, located in the Himalayas.
This is a region that, while under Chinese jurisdiction, is also claimed by
India. India and China went to war over this territory in the Sino-Indian War
of 1968 following attempts by India to enforce its authority over the region.
The result was the defeat of India and its army being pushed out of the area,
but while this may have been the case, India has maintained that Aksai Chin is
still within its territory (Smith 92). Some Indian government officials have
over the years made remarks concerning reclaiming Aksai Chin from China and
these have raised concerns from Chinese officials that it might mean a military
confrontation between these two countries. One of the biggest concerns about
the threat from India is that with its growing economic might, it will be able
to challenge the status quo in the Himalayas and seek to claim Aksai Chin for
itself. The growing Indian economic power in Asia might end up bringing about
an alternative sphere of influence to that of China, especially for those
countries that feel aggrieved by China, but are not willing to become a part of
an American-led alliance. Under such a situation, it will be difficult for
China to achieve the hegemonic status that it desires in the region because
India has the potential of challenging it. In the Aksai Chin region, it is
likely that China and India are going to have another military confrontation if
the problem is not handled diplomatically and as swiftly as possible. This
means that it will be essential for China to develop contingency plans aimed at
making sure that any direct conflict with India is prevented because the
results of a major conflict between these two countries would be unpredictable.
One
of the issues that might end up making India a direct external threat to China
is the latter’s alliance with Pakistan. Pakistan is India’s greatest rival in
the region, and this has been the case since the partition and independence of
British India in 1947. The resulting states, namely India and Pakistan, have
been at odds with each other, especially concerning the state of Kashmir, which
has remained a contentious issue for both countries. Both countries claim
Kashmir in its entirety and have gone to war several times in order to enforce
their claims. China has often sided with Pakistan when it comes to Kashmir in
return for Pakistan’s support in the matter of Aksai Chin. A consequence has
been that China and Pakistan have forged close relations for decades and this
has been to such an extent that China has become Pakistan’s biggest trading
partner as well as a supplier of military hardware; a situation that has not
gone down well with India. In addition, China plans to build a part of its Silk
Road, an infrastructure project aimed at connecting China with Europe and the
Middle East, in Pakistan, and because of the massive investment involved in the
project, it is essential that the corridor through Pakistan is completed and
becomes effective. However, if another conflict were to build up between India
and Pakistan, all the work that China will have put in its Pakistan corridor
will be at risk. Therefore, in order to deal with the Indian threat, it is
essential for China to make sure that it becomes a neutral party in such a way
that promotes diplomacy between India and Pakistan rather than open conflict
that might destabilize the region. This process is currently not feasible
because Chinese-Pakistani relations have become so deep that it is unlikely to
come to an end any time soon.
The
‘enemy of my enemy is my friend’ alliance between China and Pakistan has the
potential of bringing about a similar relationship between India and Japan.
With Japan’s plans to bring about remilitarization, it is only natural for it
to form a strong regional alliance to contain Chinese ambitions. Both India and
Japan have capable navies and could undertake to conduct joint patrols in areas
of contention, especially between China and Japan (Scott 53). Such a situation
could be a direct threat to China because it will find itself having to face
not only the United States, which is opposed to its ambitions, but also Japan
and India; with such an alliance in the region essentially challenging Chinese
hegemony. This is a scenario that could take place because of the
uncompromising position that China has taken when it comes territorial and
border disputes with its neighbors. The prevention of such a situation from
taking place should be one of the biggest Chinese objectives because to do
otherwise could lead China finding itself surrounded by hostile neighbors that
will be willing to undertake joint military action to not only protect their
mutual interests, but also ensure that China is contained. Therefore, the
direct external threat to China is of its own making and this is especially the
case when it comes to India, where it has to undertake significant steps to
ensure that the Aksai Chin dispute is concluded and that there is the
advancement of more cooperation between them. Otherwise, it is likely that
India will end up becoming a part of alliances aimed at bringing about the
containment of China and this could be to such an extent that China will be
left with very little room to maneuver. Under such circumstances, China could
find itself in a situation where its foreign policy objectives are stifled.
Taiwan
Taiwan
is a state that came into being following the Chinese Civil War in 1949 when
nationalist forces, under the leadership of President Chiang Kai-shek, occupied
the island. Taiwan has since then developed into a vibrant democracy and over
the years has increasingly sought to achieve self-determination. However, China
claims this territory as its own and has sought to ensure that it does not make
any moves towards a formal declaration of independence. The One China policy
has been adopted in a bid to ensure that a conflict between China and Taiwan
does not take place and has essentially resulted in a level of relations being
established between these two states. The One China policy seeks to advance the
idea of reunification between China and Taiwan and this has promoted
cross-straits relations between them for decades, which have ensured that a
status quo is established. Cultural and educational exchange programs have
become common between them and have led to a situation where a considerable
number of people from both states visit the other without fear of
discrimination (Tsai and Huang 91). This achievement cannot be underestimated
because it has allowed for relations between these two nations, which were once
hostile, to develop in such a way that they have essentially become dependent
on one another. However, the differences in the system of governance between
these two states means that their development towards democracy has taken very
different paths, with China remaining a one-party state that does not hold
elections, while Taiwan is a democracy. This is one of the biggest issues of
contention for Taiwan when it comes to matters concerning reunification because
it does not wish to become a part of a one-party dictatorship. Taiwan has
increasingly moved away from the One China policy towards a policy that intends
to ensure that it secures its independence. Such a situation can be seen as a
threat to the territorial integrity of China and could lead to a conflict
between these two states that might end up destabilizing the region.
The
biggest external threat to China is a situation where Taiwan makes the decision
to declare independence. This is a scenario that the government of China has
worked hard to ensure that it does not come true. China has undertaken
initiatives aimed at making sure that there are closer relations between the
two states with the aim of eventually bringing about a reunification. One of
the most significant diplomatic complexities that determine whether the two
entities will eventually reunify is that neither one of them will acknowledge
the other as a separate state. This scenario is exemplified through the way
that the relations between the two states are described by their respective
governments. The Taiwanese government chooses to call the cross-Strait
relations ‘special non-state-to-state-relations’, a term that refers to the
relationship as being between entities within the same state rather than different
states. Also, there are different meanings of the state in both China and
Taiwan, with the former considering the China to be the state while the latter
considering Taiwan to be the state. Despite the conflicts that take place
between them, both of these states have cabinet ministries that are aimed at
addressing their interests in the territories that their rivals control. Thus, Taiwan
has a ministry of Mainland Affairs while China has a ministry of Taiwan
Affairs, but while these ministries are not effective, there are avenues
through which these states develop relations, they work through foundations
that are funded by respective governments, with China having the Association
for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits, and Taiwan funding the Straits
Exchange Foundation. China has stated that if Taiwan were to declare
independence, it would consider the use of military force to ensure that it
brings the island back to direct Chinese control. Such an action could be
extremely risky for China to undertake and could lead to a situation where its
credibility as a responsible international player is brought to question.
In
Taiwan, there is a lot of skepticism concerning whether China would actually
use military force were the island to declare independence. The skepticism has
come about based on doubts concerning whether China has the military capacity
to engage in a conflict with Taiwan. Also, the potential involvement of the
United States is considered a security guarantee for Taiwan especially
considering that the military capacity of the United States is far superior to
that of China and could lead to a decisive defeat of the latter. Moreover, in
Taiwan, there is the argument that if China were to invade Taiwan, it could
lead to the exacerbation of its domestic problems that has the potential of not
only leading to political unrest, but also lead to economic instability. These
arguments, while pertinent to an extent, do not consider the realities of the
situation especially when it comes to the current political conditions in
China. The legitimacy of the CPC has increasingly shifted from its ability to
deliver economic benefits to its population, to one that promotes Chinese
nationalism. The increasingly nationalistic policies that China has adopted on
the international scene are unlikely to be halted and with its growing power, this
country will become more aggressive in protecting its interests. However, these
actions are also likely to bring about a situation where China ends up making
more enemies than friends internationally. This is especially the case
considering that China is seen as a threat to the continued hegemony of the
United States in East Asia and could bring about a situation where America
undertakes to form an international alliance aimed at Chinese containment. Under
such circumstances, China has the potential of finding itself threatened from
all sides; with little capacity to handle all of these threats at once.
Conclusion
In
order to ensure that it tackles the various internal and external threats that
it faces, China has taken several steps which are aimed at bringing them to an
end. In the case of Xinjiang, the Chinese government has passed affirmative
action laws aimed at ensuring that the local populations are able to achieve
development at the same level as their Han Chinese counterparts. However, as
seen above, these laws have failed to provide any tangible advantages to the
local people of Xinjiang and this is to such an extent that Han Chinese still
has the upper hand in the region. In addition, China has sought to prevent
separatism through encouraging massive Han Chinese settlement, not only in
Xinjiang, but also in Tibet, and this has ensured that the Chinese government
gains an advantage as well as a legitimate reason for being in these two
regions. When tackling domestic terrorism, it has become common practice for
the Chinese government to undertake a strike hard tactic, a merciless method of
making sure that all suspected terrorists are eliminated before they undertake
any attacks that might bring about the loss of life. Furthermore, in handling
of its territorial disputes, especially in the South China Sea, China has made
the decision to ensure that it shows considerable military force and this is to
such an extent that it has begun to occupy small islands and rocks and
construct artificial islands around them to ensure that it increases its
projection of power. It has also sought to tackle territorial disputes diplomatically,
as seen in the case of India, where negotiations take place constantly to calm
tensions between these two Asian giants. Moreover, China has participated in
the imposition of sanctions against North Korea in a bid to discourage the
rogue country from becoming a security risk to Chinese interests in the region.
This has been an important step in helping to reduce the risk of a war taking
place on China’s doorstep in case of an American invasion. Finally, despite the
threats that it entails, as seen above, China has sought to ensure that it
advances its national interests through the aggressive pursuit of its objective
despite objections from other countries, especially the United States, as well
as others in the region.
