Internal and External Threats to China

 

Introduction

            In recent years, China has risen to the status of one of the most influential countries in the world. Not only is it a member of the United Nations Security Council, but it is also the second largest economy in the world after the United States. The swift rise of this country has been accompanied with significant military modernization as China seeks to increasingly assert itself in the East Asian region. The country has been able to ensure that it undertakes initiatives aimed at enhancing its status both regionally and internationally to such an extent that it has succeeded in making sure that it becomes one of the most important players on earth today. The rapid growth that China has experienced, however, has also led to a number of significant challenges. Among these is the need to determine how to keep a balance between domestic and international politics, as well as the advancement of it agenda towards the achievement of its rightful status in the East Asia region. In order to achieve this goal, it has become essential to make sure that it faces threats to its stability both internally and externally. As a one-party state with ambitions to ensure that it creates a unified nation in order to more effectively handle crises brought about by external forces, China has essentially been forced to create a balance on how it deals with both internal and external threats. A consequence has been China has received considerable condemnation, especially from western countries, and some countries in East Asia as well, when it comes to the manner through which it handles such moments of crisis. This is especially considering that China has become more aggressive in asserting its influence and rights both internally and externally, as seen in the South China Sea as well as its actions to quell dissent in Xinjiang province.

             One of the biggest factors when considering China’s response to internal and external threats is that its policies are based on the desire not to repeat past mistakes. This is especially considering incidents in the nineteenth century when China showed considerable weakness that was spurred by internal political disputes. The result was that western nations took advantage of China’s weakness during the Opium Wars; resulting in humiliating terms being put on the country. The result of these incidents is that the Chinese Communist Party (CPC) has sought to make sure that they do not happen again and this is to such an extent that it has employed all measures possible to prevent any domestic conflicts from providing external actors with opportunities to interfere in Chinese domestic affairs. A consequence, which is extremely prominent in the making of national policy today, is that China does not separate its external threats from internal ones, with policies meant to handle the latter being formulated in such a way that prevents the former from coming about. In addition, it seems that China is also determined to ensure that it brings about a situation where the status of the country as the most powerful nation in the region is reasserted. This is especially considering that China, in its recent actions concerning addressing territorial disputes, has made use of Chinese imperial maps as a means of making its claims over certain territories (Yahuda 446). The result has been that it has led to considerable conflict with some of its neighbors, most notably Japan, Vietnam, and the Philippines; all of which have similar claims to those of China. Moreover, the Chinese imperial territorial claims also included Tibet and Xinjiang, and these were essentially brought under Chinese control following the CPC’s takeover of China. Despite these efforts, Tibet and Xinjiang remain among the most significant internal threats to China, and the Chinese central government has worked hard for years to make sure that these threats are allayed. This paper makes an analysis of some of the most significant internal and external threats that affect China and how this country is handling them in order to ensure its stability as well as protecting its national interests.

Internal Threats

China faces a considerable number of internal threats and these have for the most part come about because of the policies adopted by the CPC. These threats have, despite many efforts by the central government only grown over the years and it seems that more efforts have to be put in place in order to mitigate them. The ascendency of Xi Jinping to leadership of the CPC can be considered to be one of the most significant events in modern Chinese history because it marked a point where the leader of the CPC sought to concentrate all power in the state, including over the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), among other major factions, in his own hands. This is a process that has brought about considerable change in Chinese society, especially in the manner through which Xi has presided over the war on corruption that has led to thousands of prosecutions, both among the elite and local CPC leaders. Xi’s style can be considered to be more assertive, which is important when considering the way that China is currently handling the major internal crises in Tibet and Xinjiang (Economy 80). These threats cannot be underestimated because if China does not handle them with care, it is likely that it would be a blow not only to Chinese sense of nationhood, but also spell an end of the CPC as the main guarantor of Chinese national interests. The Xinjiang crisis has also led to a situation where there is a constant threat of domestic terrorism and this has made the Chinese government to become extremely wary of an increase of such incidents. The achievement of the goal of completely pacifying Xinjiang, as well as Tibet, could be a boon for China because it will have decisively brought an end to major internal threats that it has had to combat over the years.

Tibet

Tibet is a region that has had a long and illustrious history and was once the center of one of the most powerful states in East and Central Asia. However, with the decline of the Tibetan empire, it soon came under the control of China, but while this was the case, it enjoyed considerable autonomy. Even following the Mongol conquest of China, and the formation of the Yuan dynasty, the latter incorporated Tibet and ensured that it had a level of autonomy, although this autonomy was strictly controlled. This situation continued until after the fall of the Qing dynasty in the beginning of the twentieth century, when Tibet declared independence from China. However, Tibetan independence would only be a brief respite from Chinese control, because following the Chinese Civil War and the coming to power of the CPC, Chinese authority over Tibet was swiftly reestablished in 1950. While China was initially willing to ensure that Tibetans achieved a level of social and economic reforms, this policy was swiftly reversed following the 1959 Tibetan Rebellion which saw the 14^th Dalai Lama flee to India. The result was that rather than continuing their initial policy, the Chinese adopted one that focused solely on preventing separatism in Tibet (Smart). This policy is one that has been ongoing since them and it has led to a situation where China is finding itself in positions that it did not expect, as seen in the manner through the self-immolations that have been taking place in Tibet in recent years. The actions of those individuals desiring the independence of Tibet can be considered a failure of Chinese policy when it came to the integration of the region into China. In addition, the heavy-handed approach to independence as well as the near lack of improvement in the lives of locals may be a reason why there is greater agitation for independence. The manner through which China handles this threat, especially if there will be any change, will determine whether it will be reduced or only get worse.

International Support for the Dalai Lama

 One of the most significant issues that come about because of the threat from Tibet is the considerable international support that the Dalai Lama enjoys. The last leader of an independent Tibet, and the leader of its government-in-exile has essentially been provided with an international platform by many countries across the world, including the United States, and this has raised awareness concerning the situation in Tibet. This platform has been provided despite considerable Chinese protests, and has promoted the Dalai Lama’s agenda in such a way that Tibet has come to be seen as a victim of Chinese occupation (Bandeira 67). The international support received by Tibet’s government in exile is significant because to China, it is seen as a direct internal threat. This is especially considering, as mentioned above, the Chinese fear of foreign interference in its domestic affairs. China has for the most part invested heavily in making sure that Tibet is an integral part of its territory and it has sought to bring about a situation where it has absolute control over Tibetan social, economic and political life. One of the most important actions undertaken by the Chinese has been to make sure that the legitimacy of the Dalai Lama is disputed in Tibet through its raising of a rival spiritual leader to act as the head of the autonomous region. In addition, China has sought to make sure that it increasingly Sinicizes Tibetans by encouraging them to show loyalty first to the China and the CPC before their own region. It has also involved the conversion of religious teaching towards a focus on the ethnic unity of all Chinese, no matter their ethnic origins, so that it can be possible to achieve a truly socialist society. These efforts, which have especially been encouraged by President Xi, have yet to be studied and their effects properly, but it is hoped that they will become clearer in the coming years.

External Support for Independence (India)

  China’s fear of foreign intervention in its domestic affairs has led to a situation where it seeks to ensure that it prevent any such attempts. A consequence has been that China, especially following its annexation of Tibet, has sought to bring about a scenario where its national interests are protected at all costs. The border dispute that China has had with India in the South Tibet and Aksai Chin regions can be considered a potential trigger of Indian interference in Chinese internal affairs. This is especially the case considering that China and India went to war in 1968 over the Aksai Chin region; a war that China won and asserted its claims. The war seems to have also been triggered by India’s attempts to support and encourage the Tibetan independence movement, which led to China’s swift response (Ranjan 101). A result is that while the border dispute is still ongoing, China has become wary of India’s making attempts to challenge its authority in Tibet. In addition, the fact that India hosts the Dalai Lama is seen as a security threat by China because his presence is what has essentially fanned the flames of agitation for independence by Tibetan nationalists. This threat has led to China’s undertaking a policy that promotes the advancement of national interests over regional interests to such an extent that a considerable part of its policies in Tibet are aimed at making the Tibetans loyal citizens of the People’s Republic of China. This process, however, still has a long way to go, especially considering that China has for centuries not been successful in integrating ethnic minorities in such a way that made them truly feel like a part of the nation. The lack of proper initiatives to integrate ethnic minorities can be seen in the case of Tibet, which despite having, at varying periods over the centuries, been a part of China, have essentially maintained their ethnic, religious, and national identity.

Xinjiang

Xinjiang tends to feature prominently when discussing China in the contemporary world because it is one of the most restive regions in the country. This is because among the Uighurs majority, China is seen as an occupying power, and there has been a strong movement aimed at bringing about the independence of Xinjiang as East Turkestan (Klimeš 162). A result is that China sees the region as a serious internal threat that has to be dealt with swiftly in order to ensure that Chinese control is maintained. China bases its claims over Xinjiang on its century’s old occupation of the area, which has brought about a situation where there have been a lot of interpretations concerning the historical facts. Most Chinese scholars state that Xinjiang was an area that was an essential part of China since the Tang and Han dynasties and that rather than being the natives of the region, the Uighurs and other minorities only came into the region as foreign invaders. This claim is vigorously challenged by the Uighurs, who, despite evidence to the contrary, state that they have been living in Xinjiang for thousands of years, and that they were the originators of civilization in the region. These conflicts of interpretation have led to a situation where it is difficult for the Xinjiang crisis to be solved effectively because the major parties in the conflict have not attempted to make use of dialogue to both achieve a solution that is satisfactory to both. Therefore, China has ended up viewing Xinjiang as a region deserving special attention because it is one of the most important ways through which to make sure that it does not get overtaken by events; leading to a failure to protect what it considers its sovereign territory from separatist movements. Despite these efforts, Chinese methods of maintaining its rule over Xinjiang have received a lot of criticism internationally.

Pacification of Uighurs and Other Minorities in Xinjiang

One of the most fundamental actions undertaken by the Chinese government has been to bring about the pacification of the people of Xinjiang. This has sometimes involved the swift utilization of force aimed at discouraging separatist movements while at the same time encouraging loyalty to China. The separatist movements are considered a direct internal threat to China and this is to such an extent that the government has taken actions aimed at making sure that those suspected of being a part of these movements are punished severely. A significant aspect of this situation can be seen in the manner through which the Chinese government has dealt harshly with those suspected of taking part in terrorist activities on behalf of separatist groups. These individuals have tended to be sentenced to death as a means of serving as a lesson to their compatriots who would prefer to separate from China. Despite these efforts, the major source of problems in Xinjiang stem from ethnicity and religion. This is especially considering that the Uighur are not only ethnically Turkic, but also practice Islam, rather than the religions practiced by Han Chinese, such as Buddhism, Taoism, or Confucianism (Friedrichs 55). A result has been that the Chinese government has sought to exercise control over the religious practices of the Muslim population in Xinjiang as a means of its pacification process. This process, which has essentially denied the Uighur Muslim community its religious freedom, has been tailored to discourage those practices of Islam that are considered unifying factors for the community. Consequently, rather than pacifying these people, recent years have seen increasing radicalization; a scenario that China is perhaps not ready to face. The ethnic differences between the Turkic Uighur and the Han Chinese is one of the most contentious issues in Xinjiang, and the attempts by the latter to pacify the former is a threat that the Chinese government has to deal with diplomatically in order for peace and stability to be maintained in the region.

Continued Disadvantage to Local People despite Affirmative Action

The CPC has undertaken actions aimed at promoting the interests of minority groups in China. Xinjiang is not exception to this policy and this is especially considering that over the years, affirmative action policies such as the promotion of local languages through local newspapers, being given preference in job acquisition, as well as having an unlimited number of children and polygamous marriages for Muslim minorities have been put in place. However, despite these policies being in place, there has been a deficit in tangible effects because a considerable number of the local people of Xinjiang still lag considerably behind their Han Chinese counterparts. These individuals are not able to enjoy the same benefits as the Han Chinese because despite the affirmative action policies, the CPC has maintained considerable control over how they are implemented. A result has been that the Han Chinese settlers in Xinjiang are still provided with more privileges than their local counterparts, and this is to such an extent that they have ended up in a situation where they have a great advantage over the locals (Tang 346). The economic disparities between the Han Chinese and the local Uighur majority has had the effect of leading to a sense of alienation in their own land to such an extent that it is feeding the flames of rebellion and separation from China. The considerable mineral wealth found in the region, which would have been best utilized to advance the economic status of the local population, has mostly ended up benefiting the Han Chinese; showing a failure by the Chinese government to consider that an improvement of economic status for the Uighur under Chinese rule, would go a long way towards reducing the separatism prevalent in the region. The result has been an increase in instances of domestic terrorism in China, which are a sign of the considerable unrest taking place within the Xinjiang region.

Domestic Terrorism

In recent years, China has come to face significant problems with domestic terrorism, and these have been prominent because most of them have been connected to the Xinjiang separatist movement. These incidents have taken place with increasing frequency to such an extent that there have been questions asked concerning the effects of Chinese policy in Xinjiang, and perhaps if it could be possible to change them in order to make the people of this region feel an inclusive part of China. Terrorist activities within the Chinese borders are a direct threat to the state because it worsens the political and economic situation in the country. It brings about a situation where there is a reduction of confidence by the international community to conduct business in China because there is a constant threat of an attack taking place. Most of these attacks have been inspired by the international jihadi movements that have taken root in Central Asia, especially coming from such countries as Afghanistan and Pakistan. These advocate for violent means to bring about an end of Chinese rule over Xinjiang and the establishment of an Islamic state to replace it. The events that have been taking place in the Middle East in recent years, especially in Syria and Iraq with the establishment of ISIS, have had a great influence on advocating for violent action against what is considered the Chinese occupation of Xinjiang. China has come to perceive the spread of jihadi ideology to Xinjiang as a serious threat and this has been to such an extent that it has been more than willing to join in the international war on terror. However, the Chinese actions have received considerable criticism because its strike-hard tactics in fighting domestic terrorism has essentially become the same as its efforts to fight separatism in Xinjiang (Odgaard and Nielsen 535). The fight against terror has become an excuse to crash any rebellion or dissent in Xinjiang without undertaking any tangible reforms that improve the lives of the locals to such an extent that they renounce their ambitions for independence. Therefore, if China does not stop actions that continuously alienate the Uighur population in Xinjiang, it is possible that incidents of domestic terrorism will continue being a challenge for many years to come, and this is especially considering that the younger Uighur generation has the potential of becoming more radicalized than their predecessors.

Hong Kong

Hong Kong is a territory that was under British rule for a long period and at the time of its return to China in 1997; it had essentially become one of the most cosmopolitan cities of the world. In addition, it was quite stable economically and was one of the most prominent financial and business capitals in the globe. When it gained independence under Chinese rule, there was the expectation that Hong Kong would essentially become a democracy that would not only be a model for other countries in the region, but also for China as well. The One Country, Two Systems policy was one of the most pivotal steps that were aimed at bringing about a situation where Hong Kong would become a part of China without losing any of its values and for many years, it seemed to work (Fong 725). However, the increasing CPC involvement in the affairs of Hong Kong has led to a considerable reduction of the democratic space that its people had enjoyed, and there led to massive protests over the years. These protests have been aimed at forcing the Chinese government to respect the will of the people of Hong Kong and to allow them to select their own leadership without interference. Moreover, there is also a movement that has increasingly gained strength that proposes complete independence from China, and this has put the latter in a difficult situation both internally and externally. The CPC has essentially based its legitimacy on the economic advancements that China has seen over the years as well as the protection of Chinese national interests. However, the party was not democratically elected and Hong Kong’s demands could have serious ramifications for the future of the CPC in the whole of China. While the Chinese government has taken very measured steps in seeking to resolve the Hong Kong crisis, it has headed towards the direction of asserting itself in Hong Kong like never before. The Hong Kong protests can be considered to be a test of the resilience of the CPC and could end up being a more serious threat than it currently is if the Chinese government acts in a manner that puts into doubt its legitimacy.

External Threats

Like its internal threats, China’s external threats are also taken quite seriously by its government to such an extent that considerable investment has been put in place to deal with them. As a rising global political, economic, and military power, China faces a considerable number of external threats that are both long-term and short-term. A consequence is that China has suddenly found itself in potential conflicts and disputes in which it would not have involved itself a few decades ago. However, the need to protect its national interests have forced China to undertake actions that while in some circles of the international community are considered aggressive, in others, they are considered legitimate concerns which have to be addressed (Chong 81). The rise of China has taken place at a time when the United States, a superpower that is on the decline, has shifted its focus from the Middle East back to East Asia as a means of reestablishing its dominance in the region. Despite its decline, the United States is still the most powerful country in the world and if it were to go into an economic or military conflict with China, it is likely to be the winner. However, China’s growing military and economic capabilities have pushed it towards challenging American hegemony in East Asia, and this could have serious ramifications in future. Moreover, a more assertive foreign policy under President Xi has led China into disputes with some of its neighbors, such as the Philippines, and Vietnam, as well as India. However, the most direct external threat to China at this time is that stemming from North Korea, and its determination to acquire a nuclear arsenal. This threat is coupled with that of the remilitarization of Japan, which has come about directly as a result of the North Korea crisis. It is therefore appropriate to address each of these external threats beginning with that posed by North Korea.

North Korea

When it comes to international notoriety, North Korea has in recent years become one of the most popular candidates. This country has never hidden its nuclear ambitions, which it considers essential to promote the survival of its regime (Anderson 1). North Korea is a country that came to existence following the end of the Second World War when the United States forces and the Soviet Union forces liberated the Korean Peninsula from Japanese colonization. North Korea emerged as a communist state in the area that was roughly occupied by the Soviet Union while South Korea emerged as a capitalist state in the area of American occupation. The two Korean states went to war starting in 1950 with the support of their respective allies. North Korea was supported by China and Russia while the south was supported by the United States and its allies. The result was a stalemate and a truce that was made in 1953 and has remained the status quo to this day. Thus, while South Korea ended up evolving into a democratic state, as well as one of the most prosperous countries in the world, North Korea has remained a communist regime that has become more oppressive towards its people and the subject of numerous international sanctions that have essentially crippled its economy. In East Asia, the sole reliable ally that North Korea has is China, which has essentially supported its fellow communist regime through maintaining trade links as well as continued diplomatic connections that have ensured its continued survival. However, its nuclear ambitions as well as its defiance against United Nations resolutions and sanctions, some of which even China has backed, has led to China having to reassess its relationship with North Korea (Cha). Despite this reassessment, letting go of North Korea would not be an easy task for China to undertake because North Korea is a very important state to China at a regional geopolitical level. Therefore, maintaining its alliance with North Korea means that China exposes itself to a number of external threats that it might have to tackle in the near future.

Increasingly Erratic Behavior of North Korea

North Korea is currently ruled by a young and inexperienced leader whose actions seem aimed at ensuring the continued survival of his regime. The North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un, has since the beginning of his rule used very undiplomatic language when addressing issues of international concern over his country. He has defied all actions undertaken by the United Nations Security Council to prevent North Korea from obtaining nuclear weapons and the ability to deliver them using missile technology. Under his leadership, North Korea has undertaken to ensure that it not only carries out nuclear tests, but also missile tests as well (Baker). These tests have put the entire region on high alert, with potential targets such as South Korea and Japan being extremely concerned. One of the most important reasons behind these concerns, especially on the Japanese side, is that North Korea still blames Japan for the oppression of the Korean people during the 35 years Korea was under its rule. South Korea, on the other hand, is concerned because while the Korean War ended with a truce in 1953, the war itself was not officially ended because no peace treaty was signed (Grisafi and Waldron). Therefore, it has become essential to make sure that there is the advancement of means through which to prevent North Korea from making a devastating attack on either of these countries, including remilitarization, as in the case of Japan, and permission to develop its own nuclear arsenal, in the case of South Korea. Moreover, North Korea has also taken the unprecedented action of threatening to target the United States in its own territory if it continues to threaten military action against North Korea. These statements, at the backdrop of its rapidly advancing weapons technologies, has raised serious concerns in the United States, which has stated that all options, including military action, are on the table when dealing with North Korea. All of these incidents have placed China in an extremely awkward position because it has been put under a lot of pressure to rein in its North Korean client.

Potential American Military Action

The potential of American military action against North Korea because of its erratic behavior is one of the most direct external threats to China. This is because such an operation would involve a considerable part of American military might being deployed in East Asia. China has lived in fear of American attempts to contain it for decades and this is especially considering its growing influence in the region at the expense of the United States. The United States currently has military bases in Japan and South Korea, and has had a long-standing relationship with Taiwan. A result has been that China has been extremely suspicious of American intentions towards it, and in order to counter what it perceives as American attempts at containment, has sought to bring about a situation where it uses its considerable economic influence to pry some countries in East Asia from the American influence. Therefore, North Korea’s erratic behavior has the potential of leading the United States to undertake direct military action against it and this would mean that American forces would be within easy reach of China. This is a threat that China has sought to address swiftly, as seen in recent months with its participating in the imposition of new sanctions on North Korea in order to ensure that it complies with UN resolutions (Tao 6). China has in addition warned the United States not to bring any more of its forces into the region, especially close to North Korea because to do so would be unproductive. It seems that this statement is a veiled warning that China will not appreciate it if the United States were to attack North Korea; perhaps even going as far as undertaking its Korean War commitment to protect North Korea against American attacks. If the United States were to undertake military action against North Korea, it is likely that China will also be pulled into the conflict because it has a vested interest in ensuring the retention of the status quo on the Korean Peninsula.

Maintaining Korean Peninsula Status Quo

It is in Chinese interest to ensure that it maintains the status quo on the Korean Peninsula because it is one of the most important means through which it can secure its national security interests. The United States maintains a military base in South Korea, and one of the biggest concerns for China is the potential of a collapse of North Korea that could lead to its takeover by South Korea. Such a scenario would mean that the United States will have attained access to the Chinese border; a situation that would lead China to feel even more contained than it is currently. It is therefore essential for China to ensure that this event does not come to pass, and this is the reason why, despite not agreeing with North Korea’s policies, China has continued to support the survival of its regime (Oh 27). This is an extremely important situation for China because it has adopted a pragmatic policy which, while distasteful, is aimed at protecting its national security. Therefore, as mentioned above, China has a vested interest in the continued survival of North Korea and it is likely to undertake any action that it deems necessary to achieve this objective. Therefore, in a situation where the United States attempts to invade North Korea, it is possible that it will also have to fight with China. Such a conflict could end up being devastating for both sides because it would involve the two largest economies in the world in addition to very advanced military hardware. However, the likelihood of China losing is extremely high because the United States is still militarily superior. Thus, by seeking to maintain the status quo on the Korean Peninsula, China might end up putting itself in danger of a conflict with the United States. A conflict with the United States over North Korea is a potential threat to China and the latter has to act fast to ensure that such an incident does not take place.

South China Sea

The South China Sea (SCS) region has become one of the most contentious international issues involving China over the last few years. This is because China has actively sought to assert itself in this area in a bid to secure its national interests at the expense of some of its neighbors. A result has been that the United States has openly challenged China’s claims of sovereignty over the SCS and has taken actively taken steps to bring about an end to Chinese establishment of its control over the region. China has placed historical claims over some parts of the SCS that are located in extremely important shipping lanes that control a significant chunk of the global trade. China’s claims are based on imperial Chinese maps that depicted the area as being a part of the Chinese Empire. The increasingly assertive way through which China has sought to enforce its claims can be considered a part of its initiative aimed at securing itself from external threats through making sure that its uses it military and economic might to advance its claims. It is also likely that it has adopted this foreign policy so that it can correct the historical injustices and humiliation that it faced following the its internal weaknesses that made some European powers force terms on it (McHale). Therefore, China is seeking to ensure that it not only returns itself to dominance over the SCS, but also keeps foreign powers, such as the United States, which has exercised hegemony for decades, out of the region. The achievement of this objective would ensure that China not only ensures its national security, but also rises to become one of the most powerful and influential countries not only in East Asia, but also in the world. However, it has to deal with potential threats that might result from its growing assertiveness in the SCS.

The United States

The United States has exercised continuous hegemony over the SCS since the end of the Second World War and has been able to ensure that its navy has access throughout the area. Having a high level of control over this lucrative shipping lane has ensured that the United States essentially has considerable leverage in the SCS. However, China has increasingly seen American hegemony over the region as a direct threat to it because the United States, despite being the hegemon in the East Asia, and specifically SCS region, is still a foreign power. China, on the other hand, has had a historical claim over the area for centuries, with the result that it has ended up in a situation where it is seeking to turn these claims into reality. Its growing economic and military power has provided China with the confidence it needs to challenge American hegemony in East Asia and this has been to such an extent that it has undertaken to construct artificial islands in the SCS in order to be better able to project its naval power. The United States has responded to Chinese assertiveness by sending out its naval vessels to areas that are claimed by China in a bid to challenge the latter’s claims in the SCS. The events taking place between the navies of the United States and China in the SCS can be considered a direct threat to China and there is a potential of the situation getting out of hand, especially where the United States makes the decision to send its naval vessels to Chinese areas and they get attacked in response (Babb 15). Such a situation could be disastrous for China because it could end up getting into a conflict with the United States, which is one of its biggest trading partners in the world.

The Philippines and Vietnam (Military Modernization)

China’s rapidly growing influence in the SCS region has sparked a lot of concerns among countries within the region that they might become the victims of its considerably greater might. This is especially the case considering that countries such as the Philippines and Vietnam also have claims in the region and this is to such an extent that whenever China makes a move in a territory claimed by them, they feel even more threatened. A result has been that these countries, among others in the region, have sought to undertake rapid military modernization measures aimed at making sure that they protect their territorial integrity (Chao 8). Therefore, while China might feel justified to ensure that it enforces its suzerainty over parts of the SCS, there is a potential that the costs will increasingly become greater in its future endeavors. Moreover there is a potential that its aggressive policies in the SCS could alienate its neighbors to such an extent that they seek to make military alliances with the United States in order to have a power that is capable of helping them defend themselves on their side. The formation of military alliances of the same type as the United States has with South Korea and Japan, could have serious ramifications for China because its room to maneuver in the region will be greatly limited. Moreover, if China does not soften its approach to the SCS issue, it is likely that it might end up facing a string of hostile neighbors that will not be good for it in the long term. This threat can only be effectively tackled diplomatically, meaning that it will be essential for China, rather than making use of its naval power in the SCS, actively seeks to engage with its neighbors so that a peaceful settlement that satisfies all parties can be achieved.

Territorial Disputes

China has among the longest standing territorial disputes in the world with some originating prior to 1945. These disputes have sometimes led to some very tense situations between China and its neighbors to such an extent that even those countries that had long-term relationships with it, such as Vietnam, are increasingly becoming wary of its influence in the region. China’s fight to retain its territorial integrity as well as to obtain what it considers its rightful territory has sometimes led to open conflicts with some of its neighbors such as India and Vietnam, against which it has had wars. China has yet to solve most of its territorial disputes with its neighbors and this has led to a situation where its growing assertiveness as well as its willingness to use its military has made some of its neighbors come to the conclusion that China is an aggressive power bent on changing the status quo of East Asia. Its most noteworthy disputes have been with India and Japan, two very powerful countries on either end of China that have very strong claims on some territories that are also claimed by China. While these disputes have been taking place for decades, China and its neighbors have been able to ensure that they address the issues involved diplomatically. However, there has been no breakthrough in any of its disputes. The continued Chinese claims have been based on historical occupation, and this are claims that can be considered a part of CPC propaganda aimed at wooing nationalist support at home. However, such actions also give it very little room to maneuver because if the CPC is seen by its people as making territorial concessions, it has the potential of losing its legitimacy. Therefore, China has been forced to undertake a hard stance in territorial disputes with its neighbors, which could lead to serious external threats to the country.

Japan

Japan is one of the nations with which China has some territorial disputes that originate from the end of the Second World War with the defeat of Japan. Historically, Japan is one of the countries that was most influenced by Chinese culture for centuries, and this was to such an extent that members of the Japanese nobility often went to China to study. In addition, China and Japan were also closely linked by religion, especially Buddhism, which was brought to Japan by Chinese missionaries. However, major conflict between these countries did not begin until the modern era during the First and Second Sino-Japanese Wars that ended up leading to the loss of territory by China, which was the less developed of the two militarily, as well as the occupation of large parts of the country by Imperial Japan. The result was that centuries of cooperation between these two nations came to an end, and the development of a situation where Chinese begun to have a considerable number of grievances against Japan. In the contemporary world, Japan has increasingly come to be viewed as a direct threat to China and its territorial integrity, and this is especially the case when it comes to islands in the East China Sea, such as the Diaoyu Islands, as well as the potential of the remilitarization of Japan, which would mean that the latter will have the ability to make preemptive military strikes to protect its interests.

The Diaoyu Islands are located in the East China Sea and have been administered by Japan since 1972, when they were handed over to its jurisdiction by the United States. These islands were captured by the latter during the Second World War from Japan, which had occupied them during the height of its Asian empire. The Diaoyus are also claimed by China and Taiwan, and this is one of the points about which the latter agree with one another; that the Diaoyu Islands are an integral part of Taiwan and therefore a part of China. Therefore, the decision by the United States to hand over administration of the islands to Japan was an extremely controversial one and led to protests from both Taiwan and China (Gan 685). China considers these islands to be an integral part of its territory and despite never occupied them before, China believes that it has a better claim to them, especially considering that Japan only absorbed these islands following the First Sino-Japanese War. It is therefore a matter of national interest as well as international status for China to maintain that the Diaoyu Islands are a part of its territory. In recent years, there have been attempts by Japan to survey and develop these islands has led to massive protests from China and this has been to an extent that there has been a cooling down of diplomatic relations between these two nations. In addition, Chinese vessels often travel into waters surrounding the Diaoyus, and this has also led to Japanese warnings that they are only making the situation between the two countries worse. The dispute over the Diaoyu Islands has the potential of leading to real conflict between China and Japan, and considering that Japan is not only allied to the United States, but is also considering remilitarization, it could swiftly escalate to a very high stakes conflict.

The potential remilitarization of Japan has been brought about because of the considerable threats to the country from North Korea. Statements from the North Korean regime as well as missile tests that have come extremely close to Japanese territory has convinced some in the Japanese political establishment that it is time to remilitarize the country. The demilitarization of Japan was conducted following the end of the Second World War under the occupation of the United States. It was included in the Japanese constitution in order to ensure that the country did not end up undertaking the aggressive military tactics that had led to its conquest of a significant number of its neighbors and the deaths of millions that came about as a result. However, in recent years, Japan has sought to revise this policy because while it maintains a military for defensive purposes, it is not allowed to undertake any preemptive strikes against potential threats. Therefore, the remilitarization of Japan can be considered a direct threat to China especially considering that number of territorial disputes that these countries have. If China were to seek to advance its claims more aggressively, them it is likely that a major conflict with a remilitarized Japan could arise; making the costs of settling disputes between them much higher. A remilitarized Japan could also seek to make its own claims in the region at the expense of China and this could have dire consequences for China because it is determined to become the dominant power in the East Asia region.

India

India and China have had a long history of interaction between their peoples and governments spanning millennia. These two countries also have the highest number of people in the world, and have in recent years collaborated at the international level, as seen in their being members of the BRICS countries. However, following Indian independence and the takeover of China by the CPC, India and China had some border disputes that essentially led the two countries to war. It created a situation where they were extremely vigorous in the protection of their national interests, as seen in the manner through which they went to war. This border dispute is still ongoing, but both countries seem determined to solve their problems diplomatically. Despite the latter situation being the case, China still considers India to be among its biggest threats in the region. This is especially considering that India has not only become a rival emerging power to China, but it has also had rapid technological developments that have also come to be applied to its military. India is one of the few countries in East Asia that has the resources and population to compete directly with China, and the latter, despite cooperating with India in various fields, remains wary of it. Through the development of its military might, as well as having experienced rapid economic growth, India is projected to have the capability of overtaking China economically in the coming years, and might just get assertive in its new found power and challenge China in various areas of contention.

One of the most significant areas of contention between India and China that could be a threat to the latter is the Aksai Chin region, located in the Himalayas. This is a region that, while under Chinese jurisdiction, is also claimed by India. India and China went to war over this territory in the Sino-Indian War of 1968 following attempts by India to enforce its authority over the region. The result was the defeat of India and its army being pushed out of the area, but while this may have been the case, India has maintained that Aksai Chin is still within its territory (Smith 92). Some Indian government officials have over the years made remarks concerning reclaiming Aksai Chin from China and these have raised concerns from Chinese officials that it might mean a military confrontation between these two countries. One of the biggest concerns about the threat from India is that with its growing economic might, it will be able to challenge the status quo in the Himalayas and seek to claim Aksai Chin for itself. The growing Indian economic power in Asia might end up bringing about an alternative sphere of influence to that of China, especially for those countries that feel aggrieved by China, but are not willing to become a part of an American-led alliance. Under such a situation, it will be difficult for China to achieve the hegemonic status that it desires in the region because India has the potential of challenging it. In the Aksai Chin region, it is likely that China and India are going to have another military confrontation if the problem is not handled diplomatically and as swiftly as possible. This means that it will be essential for China to develop contingency plans aimed at making sure that any direct conflict with India is prevented because the results of a major conflict between these two countries would be unpredictable.

One of the issues that might end up making India a direct external threat to China is the latter’s alliance with Pakistan. Pakistan is India’s greatest rival in the region, and this has been the case since the partition and independence of British India in 1947. The resulting states, namely India and Pakistan, have been at odds with each other, especially concerning the state of Kashmir, which has remained a contentious issue for both countries. Both countries claim Kashmir in its entirety and have gone to war several times in order to enforce their claims. China has often sided with Pakistan when it comes to Kashmir in return for Pakistan’s support in the matter of Aksai Chin. A consequence has been that China and Pakistan have forged close relations for decades and this has been to such an extent that China has become Pakistan’s biggest trading partner as well as a supplier of military hardware; a situation that has not gone down well with India. In addition, China plans to build a part of its Silk Road, an infrastructure project aimed at connecting China with Europe and the Middle East, in Pakistan, and because of the massive investment involved in the project, it is essential that the corridor through Pakistan is completed and becomes effective. However, if another conflict were to build up between India and Pakistan, all the work that China will have put in its Pakistan corridor will be at risk. Therefore, in order to deal with the Indian threat, it is essential for China to make sure that it becomes a neutral party in such a way that promotes diplomacy between India and Pakistan rather than open conflict that might destabilize the region. This process is currently not feasible because Chinese-Pakistani relations have become so deep that it is unlikely to come to an end any time soon.

The ‘enemy of my enemy is my friend’ alliance between China and Pakistan has the potential of bringing about a similar relationship between India and Japan. With Japan’s plans to bring about remilitarization, it is only natural for it to form a strong regional alliance to contain Chinese ambitions. Both India and Japan have capable navies and could undertake to conduct joint patrols in areas of contention, especially between China and Japan (Scott 53). Such a situation could be a direct threat to China because it will find itself having to face not only the United States, which is opposed to its ambitions, but also Japan and India; with such an alliance in the region essentially challenging Chinese hegemony. This is a scenario that could take place because of the uncompromising position that China has taken when it comes territorial and border disputes with its neighbors. The prevention of such a situation from taking place should be one of the biggest Chinese objectives because to do otherwise could lead China finding itself surrounded by hostile neighbors that will be willing to undertake joint military action to not only protect their mutual interests, but also ensure that China is contained. Therefore, the direct external threat to China is of its own making and this is especially the case when it comes to India, where it has to undertake significant steps to ensure that the Aksai Chin dispute is concluded and that there is the advancement of more cooperation between them. Otherwise, it is likely that India will end up becoming a part of alliances aimed at bringing about the containment of China and this could be to such an extent that China will be left with very little room to maneuver. Under such circumstances, China could find itself in a situation where its foreign policy objectives are stifled.

Taiwan

Taiwan is a state that came into being following the Chinese Civil War in 1949 when nationalist forces, under the leadership of President Chiang Kai-shek, occupied the island. Taiwan has since then developed into a vibrant democracy and over the years has increasingly sought to achieve self-determination. However, China claims this territory as its own and has sought to ensure that it does not make any moves towards a formal declaration of independence. The One China policy has been adopted in a bid to ensure that a conflict between China and Taiwan does not take place and has essentially resulted in a level of relations being established between these two states. The One China policy seeks to advance the idea of reunification between China and Taiwan and this has promoted cross-straits relations between them for decades, which have ensured that a status quo is established. Cultural and educational exchange programs have become common between them and have led to a situation where a considerable number of people from both states visit the other without fear of discrimination (Tsai and Huang 91). This achievement cannot be underestimated because it has allowed for relations between these two nations, which were once hostile, to develop in such a way that they have essentially become dependent on one another. However, the differences in the system of governance between these two states means that their development towards democracy has taken very different paths, with China remaining a one-party state that does not hold elections, while Taiwan is a democracy. This is one of the biggest issues of contention for Taiwan when it comes to matters concerning reunification because it does not wish to become a part of a one-party dictatorship. Taiwan has increasingly moved away from the One China policy towards a policy that intends to ensure that it secures its independence. Such a situation can be seen as a threat to the territorial integrity of China and could lead to a conflict between these two states that might end up destabilizing the region.

The biggest external threat to China is a situation where Taiwan makes the decision to declare independence. This is a scenario that the government of China has worked hard to ensure that it does not come true. China has undertaken initiatives aimed at making sure that there are closer relations between the two states with the aim of eventually bringing about a reunification. One of the most significant diplomatic complexities that determine whether the two entities will eventually reunify is that neither one of them will acknowledge the other as a separate state. This scenario is exemplified through the way that the relations between the two states are described by their respective governments. The Taiwanese government chooses to call the cross-Strait relations ‘special non-state-to-state-relations’, a term that refers to the relationship as being between entities within the same state rather than different states. Also, there are different meanings of the state in both China and Taiwan, with the former considering the China to be the state while the latter considering Taiwan to be the state. Despite the conflicts that take place between them, both of these states have cabinet ministries that are aimed at addressing their interests in the territories that their rivals control. Thus, Taiwan has a ministry of Mainland Affairs while China has a ministry of Taiwan Affairs, but while these ministries are not effective, there are avenues through which these states develop relations, they work through foundations that are funded by respective governments, with China having the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits, and Taiwan funding the Straits Exchange Foundation. China has stated that if Taiwan were to declare independence, it would consider the use of military force to ensure that it brings the island back to direct Chinese control. Such an action could be extremely risky for China to undertake and could lead to a situation where its credibility as a responsible international player is brought to question.

In Taiwan, there is a lot of skepticism concerning whether China would actually use military force were the island to declare independence. The skepticism has come about based on doubts concerning whether China has the military capacity to engage in a conflict with Taiwan. Also, the potential involvement of the United States is considered a security guarantee for Taiwan especially considering that the military capacity of the United States is far superior to that of China and could lead to a decisive defeat of the latter. Moreover, in Taiwan, there is the argument that if China were to invade Taiwan, it could lead to the exacerbation of its domestic problems that has the potential of not only leading to political unrest, but also lead to economic instability. These arguments, while pertinent to an extent, do not consider the realities of the situation especially when it comes to the current political conditions in China. The legitimacy of the CPC has increasingly shifted from its ability to deliver economic benefits to its population, to one that promotes Chinese nationalism. The increasingly nationalistic policies that China has adopted on the international scene are unlikely to be halted and with its growing power, this country will become more aggressive in protecting its interests. However, these actions are also likely to bring about a situation where China ends up making more enemies than friends internationally. This is especially the case considering that China is seen as a threat to the continued hegemony of the United States in East Asia and could bring about a situation where America undertakes to form an international alliance aimed at Chinese containment. Under such circumstances, China has the potential of finding itself threatened from all sides; with little capacity to handle all of these threats at once.

Conclusion

In order to ensure that it tackles the various internal and external threats that it faces, China has taken several steps which are aimed at bringing them to an end. In the case of Xinjiang, the Chinese government has passed affirmative action laws aimed at ensuring that the local populations are able to achieve development at the same level as their Han Chinese counterparts. However, as seen above, these laws have failed to provide any tangible advantages to the local people of Xinjiang and this is to such an extent that Han Chinese still has the upper hand in the region. In addition, China has sought to prevent separatism through encouraging massive Han Chinese settlement, not only in Xinjiang, but also in Tibet, and this has ensured that the Chinese government gains an advantage as well as a legitimate reason for being in these two regions. When tackling domestic terrorism, it has become common practice for the Chinese government to undertake a strike hard tactic, a merciless method of making sure that all suspected terrorists are eliminated before they undertake any attacks that might bring about the loss of life. Furthermore, in handling of its territorial disputes, especially in the South China Sea, China has made the decision to ensure that it shows considerable military force and this is to such an extent that it has begun to occupy small islands and rocks and construct artificial islands around them to ensure that it increases its projection of power. It has also sought to tackle territorial disputes diplomatically, as seen in the case of India, where negotiations take place constantly to calm tensions between these two Asian giants. Moreover, China has participated in the imposition of sanctions against North Korea in a bid to discourage the rogue country from becoming a security risk to Chinese interests in the region. This has been an important step in helping to reduce the risk of a war taking place on China’s doorstep in case of an American invasion. Finally, despite the threats that it entails, as seen above, China has sought to ensure that it advances its national interests through the aggressive pursuit of its objective despite objections from other countries, especially the United States, as well as others in the region.