To what extent has Saudi Arabia adopted a policy based on surrogate warfare in order to achieve their strategic aim in Yemen

 

The war in Yemen is one of the most devastating in the modern world and this has been mainly because of the manner through which numerous individuals in the country have ended up suffering as a result. Most of the individuals that have borne the greatest impact of the conflict have been civilians and it is pertinent to note that because of this, there has been widespread condemnation towards both sides of the conflict for the humanitarian crisis.[1] However, while the condemnation has been taking place, it is important to consider that Saudi Arabia and its allies have received the greatest fault over the conflict, without the consideration that this nation has merely been protecting its national interests against Iran and its proxies in Yemen. Saudi Arabia has conducted its war in Yemen in a manner that allows it to make sure that it not only attains a level of advantage over Iran, its main regional rival, but also ensures that it reestablishes the internationally recognized government of Yemen in power.[2] Saudi Arabia has made sure that it establishes a broad alliance of nations aimed at preventing Iran from becoming too powerful in the region to such an extent that the Yemeni war is essentially a part of a strategy at the attainment of greater stability in the Middle East. While this may be the case, it is important to note that the way that the war has been conducted in recent years has essentially made it more difficult for Saudi Arabia to attain its objectives. This is especially the case when one considers that the country has been unable to fully utilize its power to realize its targets in the country. The Houthis, who are the main Iranian proxy in Yemen, have proven to be more resilient than expected despite the fact that they do not have the same quality of weapons and training as the Saudi forces.[3]

The images of the war in Yemen and the humanitarian crisis that it has spawned are often spread by international media outlets such as CNN and the BBC.[4] These tend to condemn the role that Saudi Arabia has taken in the conflict and promote the idea that this nation is the aggressor. The major omission in this case is that Saudi involvement in Yemen was aimed at making sure that not only its national security, but also the regional security, was guaranteed. The destabilizing effects of Iranian involvement in Yemen, including a potential threat on the southern border of Saudi Arabia were not only a serious security threat to Saudi Arabia, but also to the rest of the Arabian Peninsula. It was therefore essential for Saudi Arabia and its allies to get involved in the Yemeni civil war as a means of stabilizing the situation in the country as well as to prevent the overthrow of the legitimate Yemeni government. However, the approach that was taken, mainly one that seeks to completely annihilate the Houthi, and therefore Iranian presence in the Arabian Peninsula, is one that has for the most part not been successful. Instead, the Houthis, on one hand, and Saudi Arabia and its allies have ended up in a stalemate, with neither side making any advances in the conflict.[5] The latter is a sign that Saudi Arabia has to change its strategy if it is to be able to attain its objectives in Yemen. This is especially the case when one considers that Saudi strategy in Yemen has for the most part been unsuccessful in taming the Houthis and their Iranian allies. It has therefore become essential to make sure that there is the promotion of a scenario where Saudi Arabia undertakes a change of strategy aimed at the attainment of its objectives. Thus, like its rival, Saudi Arabia has to enhance its surrogate warfare in a manner that is more effective.

Surrogate warfare has proven to be one of the most effective means of attaining strategic goals in the Yemeni war. It has been employed successfully by the Iranians through the Houthis to such an extent that it has become a highly effective means of fighting against more superior foes, in this case Saudi Arabia and its allies. Surrogate warfare has shown its significance in Syria, where it has worked very well for the United States through its support for Syrian Democratic Forces, which allowed it to defeat the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).[6] The significance of this scenario should not be lost on Saudi Arabia because it has not only been highly effective in Syria, but it has allowed for the destruction of an extremely dangerous force in the region, namely ISIL. The pertinence of this strategy is that Saudi Arabia can seek to apply the same strategy in the Yemeni conflict as a means of gaining an edge over its rivals. This is especially the case when it comes to the manner through which to swiftly establish a stronger resistance to the Houthis. Iran has been able to provide the necessary support to the Houthis without incurring too much of a cost in the process and it has therefore been able to attain a high level of success when it comes to the way that it conducts its proxy war with Saudi Arabia. Therefore, Saudi Arabia should also consider employing a similar strategy. This paper makes the argument that the employment of surrogate warfare in Yemen by Saudi Arabia can be extremely effective against the Houthis as well as Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, among other current and potential regional foes. The attainment of its strategic aims in Yemen should be ample motivation for Saudi Arabia to employ surrogate warfare in order to take on its rivals on a level field.

The concept of surrogate warfare is one that has become quite popular in the 21^st century. This is because the surrogate is an actor or technological tools that are made use of by the patron to absorb its operational, financial, and political burden within a conflict. The surrogate can therefore be a state or non-state actor, mercenaries, or a commercial military organization, or a terrorist or insurgent organization that is made use of by the patron to achieve specific objectives. Technology, such as robots and drones, has also come to be increasingly used for the purpose of making sure that there is the attainment of political objectives. The use of autonomous platforms such as drones has garnered considerable attention in recent years because they ensure that there is the advancement of the interests of patron states without being costly in human life as well as financially. It has therefore become essential to consider surrogate warfare as a step up from the conventional one because it gives the actor the upper hand without necessarily getting involved in risky situations.

The surrogate has become an important tool when it comes to the considerably varied forms of warfare that are developing in the modern world. This is especially the case when one considers that there is a diversity of conflict forms that have developed in recent years that have resulted in protagonists employing numerous means to achieve their goals. Thus, conflict has ended up not only being globalized, but has also become mediatized, securitized, and privatized as a means of avoiding the large numbers of casualties that are often involved in conventional forms of warfare. Most major powers in the world have ended up in conflicts that are transnational in nature, as well as being remote in due to their distance from the home countries. It has therefore become essential for these conflicts to be considered from the perspective of how best to achieve stated objectives without putting the countries involved in quagmires such as those experienced by the United States in Afghanistan and Iraq from which it has not been able to withdraw completely. In this context, the surrogate is effective in helping the patron state engage in protracted conflicts across the world through the suppression of intangible threats that could potentially be a high risk to the homeland.

Surrogates have the means of making sure that there is the disruption of the battlespace at a kinetic level. This is based on the manner that they are able to challenge the willpower of opponents in conflicts while at the same time being able to provide the patron states with a level of deniability, especially when it comes to avoiding combat operations. This is a significant difference to proxy warfare because in surrogate warfare, technology plays a highly significant role to such an extent that it can be considered a surrogate in itself. Developments that have taken place in new technologies have ensured the development of technological surrogates. The case with the advancements made in artificial intelligence, neurosciences, and synthetic biology effective surrogates to such an extent that even small states have the ability to make sure that they achieve their goals on the battlefield.

The Yemen Civil War is one of the most devastating conflicts of the 21^st century. Since its beginning in 2014 following the overthrow of the Yemeni government led by Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi by the Houthi movement, it has become one of the most significant conflicts in the world because it has come to involve a diversity of both regional and international actors. The roots of the conflict come from the failure of the political transition that was initiated in 2011 following the stepping down of Ali Abdullah Saleh and handing power to Hadi, who was his deputy at the time. Hadi struggled significantly when it came to handling the diversity of problems that the country was facing, including the southern separatist movement, the continued attacks by jihadists, as well as the continued loyalty of the security personnel of the country to Saleh, the former president. The significance of these problems was greatly enhanced through the continued corruption, food insecurity, and unemployment that plagued that country despite the change in government. The prevailing situation seems to have contributed the drop in popularity of Hadi and his government and the development of a scenario where his authority was undermined. His failure to deal with the most pressing problems that Yemen faced created an environment within which the population was no longer willing to accept the status quo and was willing to follow any other political actor that promised change. This was the reason behind the population essentially supporting the Houthi movement in the capital Sana’a and the ouster of Hadi and his government from power.

The involvement of international actors in Yemen began soon after the overthrow of the Hadi government by the Houthis in conjunction with the security forces that were loyal to Saleh. Saleh seems to have backed the Houthis as a means of making sure that he regained power, with the result being that Hadi and his government were forced to flee the country. The rise of a group that is predominantly Shia in affiliation alarmed the regional Sunni powers led by Saudi Arabia, with the result being that they moved to ensure that potential Iranian influence on the Arabian Peninsula was prevented. The military intervention of some of the Gulf Cooperation Council nations, specifically Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain, in addition to six other predominantly Sunni Arab states, was aimed at making sure that there was the overthrow of the Houthi and the reestablishment of the Hadi government over Yemen. This was considered a proxy war based on the assumption that Iran was actively supporting the Houthis through the supply of arms and logistical support in a bid to ensure that there was a direct challenge against its biggest rival in the region, Saudi Arabia. Thus, bringing an end to Iranian influence in the region was a significant goal that was aimed at in order to make sure that there was the promotion of a scenario where the status quo would be changed in favor of the Arab states. Therefore, in order to achieve this goal, the Saudi-led coalition received intelligence and logistical support from the United Kingdom, France, and the United States while conducting their air campaign, and later, when they launched a ground offensive.

At the beginning of the war, Saudi officials made a forecast that it would only last for a few weeks before the Houthis were brought to heel. The military objectives of the Saudi coalition were to ensure that the Houthis, and therefore Iranian influence, was removed from the Arabian Peninsula, and that the Hadi government, which was considered to be the most malleable, was returned to power. Thus, following an initial air campaign that began in March 2015, the coalition landed ground troops in the southern city of Aden and undertook the advance that resulted in driving out of the Houthis and their allies from much of the southern part of Yemen over the following months. It is pertinent to consider that despite the initial success in pushing out the Houthis from some part of Yemen, the heartland of the country remains firmly in their grip. This has been the case since the beginning of the coalition war against the Houthis in 2015 and it has come to be considered to be one of the most disastrous campaigns in the modern world because of the civilian casualties that have resulted from the Saudi-led airstrikes. Furthermore, it is important to note that despite the presence of coalition ground forces in addition to their superior arms, the Houthis have managed to hold their own to such an extent that rather than being weakened, they have actually become more deeply entrenched in the areas under their control to such an extent that the international community has come to recognize that peace in Yemen cannot be achieved without them.

While the Hadi government, with coalition support, was able to return to Yemen and establish itself in the city of Aden, it struggled to ensure that it was able to provide security and other services to the Yemeni people in the territory that it controlled. Furthermore, despite the government’s return, Hadi has continued to be based in Saudi Arabia, which has resulted in a scenario where it is quite difficult for him to promote a more positive image of himself among the people of his country. It is also noteworthy that despite its best efforts, which have included both a ground and air offensive, the Saudi-led coalition has failed to make sure that the Houthis are dislodged from Sana’a, the capital city of Yemen. Instead, the Houthis seem to be gaining strength, as seen through the way that they have over the years increased their capabilities on the battlefield and managed to inflict significant losses on the coalition forces. The Houthis have further maintained their siege on the third city of Taiz, which is significant because its capture would have a demoralizing effect on the coalition forces and their allies on the ground since it would mean that the Hadi government would no longer have control over the country’s heartland. Moreover, the Houthis have enhanced their capabilities in the development in ballistic missiles and drones, which they have put into use in launching attacks into Saudi Arabia. It has resulted in an environment of considerable uncertainty amid accusations that Iran has been responsible for the transfer of advanced military technology to the Houthis. The launching of missile and drone attacks on Saudi Arabia to counter its air and ground campaign has made the latter vulnerable in a way that it was not prior to its involvement in Yemen.

The latter was seen in the highly sophisticated air attacks that were conducted against the Saudi oilfields of Khurais and Abqaiq in the eastern part of the country in September 2019. The result was the disruption of half of the oil production of Saudi Arabia, which is significant because it represented a high percentage of the global oil output. This Houthi attack is important because it shows the way that this groups has essentially enhanced its capabilities to such an extent that it is launching missile and drone attacks into Saudi Arabia. The potential for an escalation of such attacks should not be underestimated because the evidence so far has shown that the Houthis are improving their missile capabiltiies to such an extent that their attacks could go further into Saudi Arabia than they have so far. Despite the Houthis claiming responsibility for the attacks on the Saudi oil capabilities, it is noteworthy that the Saudis, as well as their American allies, accused Iran of being behind them. This is despite the evidence pointing to the Houthis since a direct Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia would essentially have been a declaration of war. However, it also shows the considerable regional tensions that have developed as a result of the Yemeni war because it is increasingly being seen as a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran. It is noteworthy that the chaos that has come about because of the war has created an environment where Al Qaeda and Daesh can thrive. Militants from Daesh as well as Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula have taken advantage of the situation to seize territory in the country’s south and carry out attacks on a diversity of places, especially in Aden.

The Saudi-led intervention in the Yemeni Civil War is one that has come with a lot of risk for the kingdom. This is especially the case when one considers that Saudi Arabia has, as seen above, become a target for the Houthis, who have been bearing the brunt of the Saudi aerial attacks since 2015. In retaliation, the Houthis launched a ballistic missile with the aim of hitting Riyadh in November 2017. The latter resulted in a move by the coalition to ensure that the blockade on Yemen was tightened in order to prevent Iran from increasing its assistance to the Houthis through the smuggling of weapons. Iran has consistently denied the accusations that it is the one sponsoring and supplying the Houthis, but while this may be the case; its claims have tended to be ignored by the Saudis and their allies. The result of this situation is that the blockade led to a significant increase in the prices of fuel and food to such an extent that it led to the people of Yemen being pushed into food and health insecurities since they found themselves in a scenario where they were unable to obtain even the most basic of needs. This insecurity has created an environment where it has become morally inconsiderate for the coalition to continue its participation in the Yemeni conflict since it involves putting a large part of the population at risk. However, despite the humanitarian situation in Yemen, Saudi Arabia and its allies steadfastly continued their attacks and blockade of Yemen in a bid to invalidate Houthi power.

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[1] Delinda C Hanley, "Ending the Humanitarian Crisis in Yemen," The Washington Report on Middle East Affairs 37, no. 4 (2018): 63.

[2] Ginny Hill, Yemen Endures: Civil War, Saudi Adventurism and the Future of Arabia (Oxford University Press, 2017), 255.

[3] May Darwich, "The Saudi Intervention in Yemen: Struggling for Status," Insight Turkey 20, no. 2 (2018): 129.

[4] M Martens, "What Kind of War Is This? Exploring the Case for a Post-Post-Proxy War Definition" (2017), 4.

[5] Peter Salisbury, "Yemen and the Saudi–Iranian ‘Cold War’," Research Paper, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs 11 (2015): 2.

[6] Habibullo Yakubovich Azimov, "The Emergence of the Syrian Crisis and the Impact of the External Forces on It," Bulletin Social-Economic and Humanitarian Research, no. 4 (2019): 92.