The American Electorate Moving To the Left

 

Introduction

Numerous changes have taken place in the politics of the United States since the beginning of the 21^st century. These changes have come about because of the manner through which political leaders have handled a diversity of situations. The first significant change of the century was seen through the way that moderate Democrats were essentially sidelined by the decisions that were made by President George W. Bush in his invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq during his war on terror.[1] While many moderate Democrats voted for the wars, the consequences of these conflicts was that there was a radical shift to the left within the Democratic Party. This is especially the case when one considers that the support that these individuals provided the Bush administration in a diversity of matters, including the war on terror, had backfired spectacularly and instead, there was a sense of war-weariness within the American public.[2] This situation can be considered the beginning of the American electorate shifting to the left, and would eventually result in the election of President Barack Obama. The significance of this shift to the left is that there has been an increase in demands from the electorate for the government to get more involved in not only the securing of the welfare of individuals, but also in the regulation of corporate entities, as well as an increase in taxes on the rich. The American electorate is moving to the left, and it is only a matter of time before the Democratic Party becomes dominant based on its policies on such issues as taxes, as well as the demographic changes that will likely increase the African American and Latino vote in its favor.

American Political Shift to the Left

Shifts taking place in the demographic makeup of the United States have become one of the main predictors of the United States’ shifting to the left.[3] The increase in the population of minorities in society has the potential of creating an environment where the dominance of the white community over the politics and social aspects of society is brought to an end; being replaced by a social hierarchy where the minority not only becomes dominant, but also shifts to the left. This is especially the case when one considers the a majority of minority groups have, since the 1930s, supported the Democratic Party, and the party leaning to the left based on a diversity of social issues that affect minority communities, could guarantee their continued support.[4] The past two decades have seen a considerable growth in the minority population, with the result being that by 2012, for the first time in American history, the number of minority births surpassed that of white births.[5] The partisan polarization of American politics has come about mainly because of the integration of more liberal ideas into society to such an extent that an expanded role of government has become the norm. Thus, individuals in society have increasingly come to look at issues based on the positions of the leadership of the parties that they support. Furthermore, the values and beliefs of American people, even the most conservative, are shifting to the left, as seen through the widespread support for government interventions in such issues as welfare and in recent cases, the support that has been given to the stimulus checks as a means of enabling the population to sustain itself during the covid-19 pandemic.

The beginning of the American shift to the left started with the election of President Obama in 2008.[6] This came about mainly because of the disappointment of the population with their economic prospects as well as the considerable failures of the government establishment at that time. A consequence was that a coalition of college-educated voters, young people, and minorities ended up working hand in hand towards the election of Obama and the defeat of firstly, John McCain, and later, Mitt Romney. The elections of 2008 and 2012 essentially saw the greatest voter turnout ever, prior to the 2020 elections, which was significant because it showed a genuine interest within the population for effective change within their society.[7] The get out the vote campaign that was promoted by the Obama campaign ensured that there was a scenario within which more people than ever before at the time were encouraged to vote. Furthermore, it ensured that there was the promotion of a scenario where the various groups in society that felt disenfranchised by the conservative establishment were able to make their voices heard through their vote. This saw a sharp move towards the left as there was a feeling of the need for there to be effective changes to government policies that rather than focusing on international affairs, would focus more on domestic ones that allowed individuals to have better lives than ever before. Moreover, some of the policy proposals that Obama promoted were in line with those of society, as seen through the positive response that was given to his proposal for a universal healthcare program. The high costs of healthcare had created an environment within which access to it had significantly reduced within the population, with a large number of individuals not having insurance or ending up in a lot of debt as they struggled to pay their healthcare bills.

However, it is noteworthy to consider that affluent societies such as the United States tend to shift to the left, especially when it comes to cultural issues. While many observers in the modern world are of the belief that the United States is in a culture war with neither the liberals nor the conservatives gaining the upper hand, it is pertinent to note that society has actually been moving to the left over the last fifty years.[8] This is especially the case when one considers that the country has moved more towards the promotion of personal freedom, as seen through the way that the conception of such issues as gender roles, sexual orientation, family, gender presentation, and drugs, among others, have changed significantly. Thus, both Democrats and Republicans have moved to the left on numerous issues, including abortion, where public opinion continues to move to the left as more individuals in society have come to have access to medical abortions that ever before. Even in those states that have remained conservative concerning abortions, there is an increase in the number of challenges against their stances, as seen through the way that there is easier access to abortion pills such as misoprostol and mifepristone. The easier access to these pills by women who desire to have an abortion has ensured that the restrictions on surgical abortions in conservative states are offset and instead, women can do as they wish with their bodies. This shows a shift towards the left as numerous individuals in society resist the more conservative laws in place and instead advocate for more individual freedoms.

The turn of the American public, as well as the Democratic Party, towards the left, is based on the triumph of liberalism. Previously, the Democratic Party was dominated by politicians who were essentially centrists, such as southerners like Al Gore from Tennessee, who backed the defense buildup of President Reagan, as well as Senator Sam Nunn from Georgia, who was among those who stymied the attempts by President Clinton to allow gays to join the military.[9] Moreover, the leadership of the Democratic Party in the late 20^th century and the early 21^st century relied on such institutions and influential magazines such as the Democratic Leadership Council, The New Republic, and the Washington Monthly, as a means of determining their policy positions such as the proposal for means-testing Social Security, their attack on affirmative action, and their opposition towards raising the minimum wage.[10] The significance of these actions shows the manner through which the Democrats in the beginning of the 21^st century were more willing to uphold some of the most conservative values of society. It provides an insight into the way that there was a determination among its leadership to ensure that there was the promotion of a centrist policy aimed at seeking to advance the interests of the party while at the same time retaining their conservative constituency. Therefore, it was considered essential to ensure that there was the promotion of a policy that maintained the status quo rather than seeking to change it.

The Democratic Party in the late 20^th century was more akin to the Republican Party in the 21^st century. This is especially considering that most centrist Democrats believed that despite the faults of Reagan, he was actually right about a number of issues. Among these was the idea that the Soviet Union was evil and therefore had to be combated at all costs. Furthermore, there was the belief that excessive government regulation had worked against economic growth. This was in addition to the belief that that the justice system was too lenient on crime and therefore hand to get tough on it. The significance of this scenario can be seen in the manner through which the Democratic Party has changed in the contemporary world because it has shifted significantly to the left. The leadership of the party, despite attempts at making sure that they maintained their centrist credentials, has ended up having to embrace the shifting perceptions of Americans, as they have turned to the left. In this way, as the society has become more liberal and turned to the left, the Democratic establishment has also been forced to change strategy and embrace the change that society is experiencing. Thus, despite the attempts by the second Bush administration towards pushing the country in a more conservative direction, the attempt seems to have backfired because society was ready to experience the changes that were considered too liberal in the late 1990s, including the acceptance of gay marriage and abortions. In this way, the American turn to the left has affected party politics in the country because not only the Democratic leadership, but also the Republican leadership, have also followed suit and moved to the left.

Tax Increases in the Future

The shift to the left by the American electorate has the potential of leading to an increase in government expenditure. This is because of the considerable demands that the public will have on government, especially when considering welfare programs.[11] As the wealth gap increases in society, there is the potential of a scenario developing where there will be the need to ensure that there is the promotion of more welfare programs aimed at securing the poorer members of society against economic hardships. There is the potential of the non-interest spending of the federal government increasing by a significant percentage by 2050, which is important because it shows the manner through which there will be the need to facilitate social programs. A system of entitlement will have become the norm because there will be the promotion of a system in society where there is greater equality for all individuals within it. In this way, there will be efforts aimed at promoting greater efficiency in bringing about a more sustainable welfare system that allows for the poorer members of society to benefit considerably from the generosity of the government. However, there is also the potential of fiscal imbalances developing, which could end up creating an environment within which it is extremely difficult for the government to service its debt while at the same time maintaining its welfare programs without an increase in taxes. Therefore, in order to ensure that the benefits promised by the left are fulfilled, there will be the need to ensure that there is an expansion of revenue streams; meaning that taxes will have to be increased significantly to allow for the attainment of revenues needed to be used within the entitlement system.

Taxes are going to be higher in future as a means of funding government. There is the need to consider that the government will need more tax revenues because of the growth in its expenditures in social programs.[12] This has the potential of increasing government debt significantly to such an extent that it will eventually be extremely difficult for it to function without an increase in taxes in order to pay for the growing interest on its debts. Thus, there will be a borrowing at record levels as the government of the United States seeks additional financial streams to ensure that it not only maintains a strong social welfare system, but also allows it to prevent a popular revolt against it. The electorate’s leaning to the left is therefore a significant process because it has the potential of changing the taxation system of the country through the increase in taxes at all levels of society. All individuals will be forced to pay some form of tax as a means of allowing the government to retain its liquidity while also providing the services that have become an essential aspect of society. Furthermore, it is likely that such programs as universal healthcare will have become the norm and because of this, there will be the need for revenue streams to be available to fund it. Thus, there will be the need for the government to ensure that it balances its finances in such a way that allows for the maintenance of the status quo, which means that an increase in taxes will not only be inevitable, but society in general will have come to embrace the process as a normal and necessary aspect of their lives.

Additionally, the record debts that the government will have because of the electorate’s move to the left will be seen as normal.[13] In fact, there is the potential that it will be defended not only by government, but also by Americans in general as a price worth paying in order to ensure that greater economic costs are prevented. Instead, it will be seen as a necessity when it comes to ensure that there is the prevention of unemployment. Moreover, the government could potentially become more directly involved in the economy through the implementation of regulations aimed at serving the interests of the people while at the same time protecting the economy from crises. This means that there will be the need for more tax revenues to be used in stimulus packages for both large and small businesses as well as individuals in society, as seen in the way that the government has responded during the covid-19 pandemic. The government will therefore have to ensure that it supports the economy not only through borrowing, but also through raising taxes so that it can be able to sustain its debts. However, despite this, there is the need to consider that the government cannot continue borrowing indefinitely, and because of this, it is likely that an increase in taxes throughout society could be seen as the only viable means of maintaining government functions without compromising its ability to intervene in the social and economic welfare of the nation.

One of the most fundamental aspects of the Democratic primary field of 2020 is that it has brought with it the most liberal tax agenda in the history of the party.[14] This is because most of the presidential candidates have promoted the advancement of progressive policies aimed at making sure that there is the advancement of the social welfare of the population. Thus, proposals that would not have been considered in previous presidential elections, such as the decriminalization of border crossings and the offering of reparations to the descendants of those individuals in society that were enslaved, in addition to higher taxes on the wealthy, have created an environment within which a potential increase in government spending is likely. Therefore, it has become essential for the candidates involved to promote an agenda of higher taxes as a means of funding their social agendas. Furthermore, it is necessary to consider that the left-leaning candidates in the party are a sign of the way that society is actually leaning when it comes to tax policies and the willingness of its leadership to ensure that they expand spending. However, spending is a matter that requires that there is the increase in tax revenues as a means of funding government functions. The left-leaning leadership of the Democratic Party is a sign of the manner that the American people are essentially moving towards the left when it comes to their opinion concerning government spending. The liberal proposals that have been made by the candidates are significant because they show a steady move towards tax increases that will end up affecting the whole of society in future.

Tax-cutting policies aimed at not only reducing government size, but also ensuring the support of conservatives in society is no longer feasible. They have the potential of ending up being inadequate when it comes to the need to ensure that the white working class vote is maintained by the parties involved unless they increase spending, which requires that there is an increase in taxes.[15] The importance of this scenario can be seen through the way that the American electorate has moved towards the left to such an extent that ideas that were once considered radical only a few decades ago have become a part of mainstream thinking. There is the need to consider that Americans have become more used to government interventions in their lives, especially when it comes to such issues as social welfare as well as universal healthcare coverage. The latter has increasingly gained more support because of the rapid rise in the cost of healthcare over the last few decades to such an extent that it has become impossible for numerous working class families from the entire society to afford it. It has therefore become essential for the political class to create a balance between their personal wishes and the wishes of the American electorate. This is especially the case with the conservatives in society, especially within the Republican establishment, who have shown a move to the left on a diversity of matters, including gay marriage and welfare programs. Additionally, the Republicans have made attempts to bring minority voters into their fold, and it is likely that the process will become more intensified as the demographic changes in the United States take place. Thus, the political establishment will seek to increase taxes in order to satisfy the needs of the electorate.

Tax Increases Targeting the Wealthy

More Americans than ever before believe that there should be a tax on the wealth of the rich people in society. This is significant because it shows the way that the public perception has changed to such an extent that there is the belief that the wealthy have to pay their fair share of taxes.[16] The considerable change in public opinion has come about mainly because of the increase in the wealth gap in society as a small number of individuals become richer while the rest become increasingly poorer. The opportunities for social advancement through climbing the social ladder have decreased drastically over the years, with the result being that there is an increase in resentment towards the rich as they seek to ensure that they receive tax cuts in order to secure most of their wealth. The American move to the left has seen numerous Democrats and Republicans support an increase in taxes on the rich. Thus, higher taxes on income as well as a tax on the wealth of the rich have come to be seen as a critical aspect of the future. It has come to be looked upon as a means of making sure that there is an increase in government revenue that can be made use of in a diversity of social programs that can help the poorest members of society. Wealth taxes are seen as a viable solution to the income inequality that has become prevalent in American society and shows the desire by a significant portion of the populace to bring about a reduction of the income gap.

As the nation turns to the left, there will be an increase in the number of entitlements that are provided by the government.[17] This will lead to larger bills that will require that there is an increase in taxes on the rich in order to fund. Paying for the entitlements while at the same time keeping the national debt in check will require that there is the taxation of the wealthiest individuals in the society. Thus, since the goal will be the implementation of a taxation system that is progressive, it will be essential to ensure that there is a mass affluent tax that seeks to impose higher taxes on the most affluent individuals in the country. Such programs as Medicare for All, which have recently come to receive widespread support from the American public, have the potential of leading to the enhancement of government spending. There is the potential of this process being spearheaded by the Democratic Party, which has a strong liberal wing that could lead the change that is currently taking place in the country. Even though the Republican Party has for the most part remained conservative in a diversity of ways, including its insistence on tax cuts and immigration, it is necessary to consider that this party has moved to the left when it comes to matters of concern for the American people, including healthcare. Consequently, even though they may have cause the destruction of Obamacare during the Trump administration, it is important to note that they continue to promise a more viable replacement.

Increasing the tax burdens on the rich has become a major theme within the progressive agenda. The latter was seen in the Democratic primary of 2020, when Joe Biden made the proposal that if elected, he would ensure that there was an increase in taxes on the rich that would raise about $3 trillion over 10 years.[18] Such taxes would include an increase in capital gain taxes, business taxes, estate taxes, and income taxes. Furthermore, there would be a strong minimum tax rate that would ensure that there was a countering of the incentive by multinational corporations to move their profits or jobs offshore. Biden’s proposals also include an increase in the child tax credit as a means of addressing low-end incomes, while at the same time allowing for the credit to be made fully refundable. Moreover, new tax credits are proposed for first-time home buyers, renters, and for dependent care expenditures. All of these proposals require funding, with one of the easiest means being through an increase of taxes on the rich. Tax increases have the ability to ensure that there is the promotion of a scenario where the government is better able to fulfill a progressive agenda that is in line with the American electorate’s move to the left. Taxing the richest Americans could potential enhance the revenues needed to not only ensure that the various social programs are funded, but there is also a reduction in the income gap between the rich and the working class through the provision of a diversity of benefits for the latter.

Tax increases on the rich have come to be seen as critical to safeguarding the poorer Americans. Therefore, there is likely to be an effort aimed at making sure that the tax revenues collected from the rich end up paying for an increase in welfare programs to ensure that poorer Americans are provided with their needs. The recent economic recessions and crises that have taken place have led to the need to ensure that there is an increase in stimulus packages aimed at helping poorer Americans.[19] This is based on the belief that it will not only increase spending through the stimulation of the economy, but also satisfy the needs of poorer Americans, at least in the short-term. There is the belief among progressives that there has essentially been a failure on the part of government to ensure that there is the equitable taxation of the rich. This belief is based on the considerable tax cuts that have come to be enjoyed by the rich, especially during Republican administrations. In a society that has become more progressive in recent decades, as well as the rapid increase in the income gap between them and the poorer Americans, the desire to ensure that there is the achievement of the goal of reducing the gap has led to calls for tax increases on the rich. The concept of social responsibility can also be considered a part of the reason behind the calls for an increase in taxes on the rich in society. Therefore, taxes on the rich will be increased considerably as a means of making sure that the income gap in society is reduced.

Future Changes to the Policy of the Left

One of the most fundamental reasons for the American electorate moving to the left can be seen in healthcare and related issues. There is widespread belief among the electorate that healthcare is a right that has to be protected.[20] This is especially the case when one considers the rising healthcare costs that have plagued the United States. More individuals are being forced to spend increasing amounts from their own pockets on healthcare, meaning that the electorate has come to view this as a serious problem that requires government intervention. The concept of universal healthcare is a significant aspect of the far-left policy, which seeks to ensure that the entire population of the United States has access to high quality of healthcare. One of the most contentious issues in American society today is that access to healthcare is quite limited for a majority of the working class, with the result being that it has become an influential factor among voters. Consequently, access to healthcare has become one of the talking points in the political debate between the Democrats and Republicans. While this may be the case, it is essential to consider that the move to the left by the electorate means that the case for universal healthcare or Medicare for all will become stronger and will eventually become a reality. The widespread support for an efficient and less costly healthcare system has made even conservatives in the political establishment to promise to ensure that measures to promote healthcare access to a majority of the population are passed.

Access to affordable college education has been promoted as part of the progressive agenda. This is especially the case when it comes to the manner through which student loans have been handled. In recent decades, there has been a considerable increase in the cost of education to such an extent that it has created an environment within which more students than ever have ended up in student debt. The significance of this situation has made it one of the most prominent issues, especially within the Democratic Party as more progressive leaders, such as Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren have sought to ensure the cancelation of a majority of student debt.[21] This has been challenged by more conservative or centralist members of the party, who have proposed only limited relief on student loans. While at first it might not be as significant, it is in fact an important step because it shows that the party leadership has been forced to shift to the left as a means of showing concern for their constituents. Most American voters have moved to the left because of concerns about personal freedoms and economic security, and education is a big factor in this case because of the manner through which it affects individuals due to the large payments that some have to make every month to repay their student loans. There is widespread belief among some of the left leaning individuals in society that student loan cancelation could potentially stimulate the economy because more people would have a greater amount of money at hand to spend.

The American electorate’s move to the left has also been brought about by the case for individual rights. The observance of rights such as abortion and personal freedoms has become an integral aspect of the manner through which the progressives view the ideal society.[22] However, it is essential to note that individual liberty and its being safeguarded by the government is one of the most fundamental aspects of the move to the left. The cause for the progressive welfare state as a means of securing the rights of individuals is one that has gained a lot of support in society, with an increasing number of Americans leaning towards this process. The move to the left by the electorate has been evidenced by an environment within which there is widespread support for such initiatives as abortion and the right of women to choose what to do with their bodies. It is also essential to note that freedom of conscience has also become a hallmark of the progressive move of society and the electorate in particular, as seen through the way that society has gradually given acceptance to a diversity of issues that would otherwise have been considered taboo. Among these is the legalization of certain drugs such as marijuana, which has become the norm in most of the states of the Union.

Conclusion

The American electorate’s shift to the left is a process that seems to be unstoppable. Even the most conservative elements in society have come to accept this shift, as seen through the way that in recent years, there has been acceptance of such liberal or progressive ideas such as gay marriage, tax increases on the wealthy, and the promotion of affordable healthcare, among others. This shows a considerable shift that cannot be denied and as the demographic changes continue to happen in the United States, it is only a matter of time before the progressive agenda becomes more dominant while at the same time allowing the Democratic Party to become dominant in society. Therefore, the American electorate moving to the left is significant because it shows the changes that are rapidly taking shape in the nation due to alterations in the social conditions of the population.

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[4] Margaret Weir, "States, Race, and the Decline of New Deal Liberalism," Studies in American Political Development 19, no. 2 (2005): 157.

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[7] Malik Miah, "United States: We Must Fight Trumpism until We Win," Green Left Weekly, no. 1291: 12.

[8] Abramowitz,  1.

[9] Phil Williams, "The Reagan Administration and Defence Policy," in The Reagan Presidency (Springer, 1990), 199.

[10] Nicholas Confessore, "The Myth of the Democratic Establishment,"  http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2004/0401

[11] Stanley Feldman et al., "The Interplay of Empathy and Individualism in Support for Social Welfare Policies," Political Psychology 41, no. 2 (2020): 343.

[12] Jared Bernstein, "We're Going to Need More Tax Revenue. Here's How to Raise It," The American Prospect, https://prospect.org/power/going-need-tax-revenue.-raise-it./.

[13] Eric M Biagioli, "Legislative Action to Improve the Fiscal Health of the United States and Reduce National Debt,"  https://jscholarship.library.jhu.edu/handle/1774.2/63243.

[14] Mildred Rein, "The End of Ideology, and the Choice for a Democratic Nominee for President," Challenge  (2020): 1.

[15] Felix J Bierbrauer, Pierre C Boyer, and Andreas Peichl, "Politically Feasible Reforms of Nonlinear Tax Systems," American Economic Review 111, no. 1 (2021): 155.

[16] Kathleen Weldon, "If I Were a Rich Man: Public Attitudes About Wealth and Taxes," Huffington Post, https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/sites/default/files/public-attitudes-about-wealth-taxes.pdf.

[17] Laurent Bouton, Alessandro Lizzeri, and Nicola Persico, "The Political Economy of Debt and Entitlements," The Review of Economic Studies 87, no. 6 (2020): 2569.

[18] David Kamin, "How Far to Go in Reforming Taxation of Wealth: Revenue and Tax Avoidance," Tax Notes Federal 168, no. 7 (2020): 1.

[19] Scott R Baker et al., "Income, Liquidity, and the Consumption Response to the 2020 Economic Stimulus Payments," (National Bureau of Economic Research, 2020).

[20] Tiffany D Joseph, "What Health Care Reform Means for Immigrants: Comparing the Affordable Care Act and Massachusetts Health Reforms," Journal of health politics, policy and law 41, no. 1 (2016): 102.

[21] Thomas Korankye and Michael Guillemette, "Student Debt and Stock-Ownership Decisions of Us Households," Applied Economics Letters  (2020): 1.

[22] Robert L Tsai, "Obama's Conversion on Same-Sex Marriage: The Social Foundations of Individual Rights," Conn. L. Rev. 50 (2018): 1.