Globalization
is one of the most significant aspects of the global economy and over the last
century, has been able to bring a diversity of countries together. Developing
countries and emerging markets have continued to integrate into the global
trade network to such an extent that they have become an integral part of the
way that nations interact with one another on a global scale.[1]
World trade has increase rapidly since the middle of the 20th
century, and this is to such an extent that numerous countries have been
brought together as a means of not only profiting from it, but also creating an
environment that it predictable in order not to disrupt trade. There is a
tradition among scholars, specifically in the social sciences, to attempt to
understand the political, social, and economic consequences of globalization.[2]
It is a topic that has been hotly debated over the decades to such an extent
that it has come to involve both the general public as well as academia. This
debate is one that considers the impact that globalization has had on income
inequality, national identity, and economic growth, among other issues. The
significance of this debate is based on the manner that globalization, and
global trade, has come to change the lives of individuals across the world.
This paper focuses on the way that trade integration plays a pivotal role in
international relations, especially when one considers the way that it
influences interstate conflict.
Military
conflict can be extremely disruptive to trade and in the long term can end up
impeding economic growth. This is especially the case when one considers the
impact that conflict tends to have on international trade.[3]
Conflict between countries has a tendency to reduce international trade because
most of the resources of the nations in conflict will be diverted to the war
effort rather than regular trade. A consequence of this situation is that there
is significant damage to the economic welfare of not only the nations involved
in the conflict, but other nations within the international system. It
therefore becomes essential to consider that trade and conflict take on
opposite roles because while trade ensures that there is a level of prosperity
for the parties involved in it, conflict, on the other hand, creates an
environment within which it becomes quite difficult for economic growth to take
place. Instead, there is a scenario where the nations involved end up seeking
to cripple one another at a military and economic level to such an extent that
rather than having peace between them, there is a level of animosity which
prevents them from undertaking joint economic activities. Therefore, trade at
the international level seems to have some impact on conflict because it allows
for the avoidance of conflict in order to ensure that there is the maintenance
of economic ties that are deemed more beneficial.
One
of the most important beliefs concerning trade is that an increase in
international trade has the potential of reducing military conflict between
nations. This is especially considering that most of the countries likely to
get involved in conflict will have developed bilateral trade interdependence.[4]
However, in a situation where there is the establishment of a level of control
over the bilateral trade relations between nations, it becomes more difficult
to determine whether or not they are likely to get involved in bilateral
conflict. It becomes necessary to consider that global trade openness has to be
done in a manner that is in the interests of all parties involved to such an
extent that they are not willing to disrupt the status quo through conflict.
Instead, trade openness has the potential of making sure that there is a level
of trust between the parties involved since they do not seek to take advantage
of one another but are rather in a bilateral relationship that is mutually
beneficial. The importance of this scenario can be seen through the finding
that trade openness has an impact that can be viewed negatively in respect to
military conflict because the latter will often take place between nations that
do not have a mutually beneficial trade relationship. However, if the
relationship is beneficial, it becomes essential for them to maintain their
economic interdependence because to do otherwise would mean significant losses.
The
potential of an increase in trade costs due to bilateral conflicts leads to the
avoidance of such conflicts. Trade costs that come about because of bilateral
conflicts not only affect bilateral trade, but also multilateral trade. Thus, nations
that are more dependent on the global economy are less inclined to become
involved in war because to do so could potentially result in disruptions to
their economies.[5] In
this way, states that are economically open to others are more peaceful because
they will often seek to avoid conflict through international institutions as
well as the use of international law. In the process, these nations will also
seek to apply good governance in such a way that provides them with a
bureaucracy that is focused more on seeking to maintain trade openness while at
the same time safeguarding the security interests of the nation involved
through the enforcement of international law. These circumstances make is less
likely for military actions to be taken; the latter being applied only as a
last resort. However, there are instances where because of multilateral trade,
there is a reduction in bilateral dependence, meaning that the potential of
military conflict is increased because the nation involved could potentially trade
with others even after disrupting its relationship with another due to military
conflict. Therefore, an increase in trade can be seen as a double-edged sword
because while on one hand, it promotes peace, on the other, it ends up creating
an environment within which there is a lowering of the opportunity cost of
getting involved in military conflict.
An
increase in trade interdependence at a bilateral level in addition to global
trade openness ensures that there is a reduction of the probability of military
conflict. In this way, trade is a critical factor when it comes to the
promotion of peace between states because there is a reduction of military
conflict between trade partners.[6]
Instead, other avenues for the resolution of conflicts between them are used to
such an extent that there is little incentive to get into war. Additionally,
bilateral trade interdependence between states has the potential of ensuring
that they have open avenues of communication that they can exploit for the
purposes of bringing about peace-promotion between them. Trade is therefore
essential for peace promotion, especially among neighboring countries because
of its ability to bring together individuals from these countries who share
mutual interests. In this way, it becomes possible to make sure that there is
the advancement of shared economic interests between states to such an extent
that the incentive for them to get into open conflict is minimized. Thus, while
bilateral trade plays an important role in promoting peace between neighboring
countries, greater global trade ensures that there is peace between distant
countries with trade connections. Trade, in general, ensures that there is the
attainment of peace at both the regional and international levels; creating an
environment of trust and openness that prevents war as a first option to the
resolution of conflict.
Trade
integration has a significant effect on conflict between nations. Thus, while
bilateral trade has the potential of creating an environment within which conflict
is avoided, the same cannot be said of multilateral trade because an increase
in such trade will often lead to a situation where countries could get into
military conflict. The case of the American invasion of Iraq in 2003 is
important because it shows the manner through which the advent of multilateral
trade created an environment within which a stronger power sought to take
advantage of a weaker one in order to gain access to its resources.[7]
However, despite the latter finding, it is important to consider that trade in
general is a force for peace since it provides an avenue through which
different states are able to work together to not only facilitate, but also
expand it to their advantage. It further ensures that there is the creation of
an environment within which shared economic interests are made use of as a
means of attaining integration, as seen in the case of the EU, which was
established on the basis of trade, and common values of its members. Increasing
trade ensures that there is the establishment of bilateral and multilateral
relationships that play an important role in bringing about greater global
stability and peace since the parties involved are often not interested in
disrupting trade.
An
increase in trade, which has resulted in globalization, has created numerous
avenues through which to promote peace. An example of such an avenue is through
the way that bilateral trade interdependence has become one of the most
significant aspects of the modern world.[8]
This interdependence is an advantage because it allows for the promotion of
peace between a diversity of nations. Trade ensures that there is the
establishment of strong relationships between nations in such a way that there
is greater cultural and political understanding at a level that would have
otherwise not have been achieved without trade. Furthermore, neighboring
countries that have a strong trade relationship are unlikely to get into
conflict because of their mutual interest in maintaining their economic
integration. The interconnectedness of nations through trade ensures that they
are able to enhance their cooperation to such an extent that they are more
willing to work together in the resolution of issues between them rather than
resorting to hostilities, which end up being seen as unnecessary due to their
potential to disrupt trade. However, it is noteworthy that while bilateral
trade will promote peace between neighboring countries in an effective manner,
the same cannot be said of distant countries. Instead, distant countries are
more likely to enhance peace between them through participation in global
trade, which involves greater trade openness.
The
findings of the analysis above suggest that trade integration not only bring
about economic, but political gains as well. This is to such an extent that
trading partners will most often end up becoming political partners as well as
they seek to make sure that they create avenues through which to enhance their
economic cooperation. Economic cooperation inevitably leads to a level of
political cooperation which plays a significant role in international politics,
especially when one considers that there is less likelihood of conflict between
these states because of the diversity of avenues open for their cooperation. Economic
integration at both a regional and global level will often be initiated as a
means of attaining both security and political goals. Under such circumstances,
the economy becomes a security issue which is protected through the
encouragement of cooperation between trading partners. An example of such a
project, as seen above, is that of the EU, which was formed following the end
of the Second World War with the aim of not only securing the European economy,
but also prevent conflicts on such a large scale from happening again. It is
therefore essential to ensure that there is the promotion of a greater understanding
of the connection between an increase in trade and peace in future research.
[1] Jong‐Wha Lee
and Ju Hyun Pyun, "Does Trade Integration Contribute to Peace?," Review of Development Economics 20, no.
1 (2016): 327.
[2] Lang Ping, "How Trade Promotes Peace: A Case Study of Sino-Us
Relations [J]," World Economics and
Politics 11 (2006): 1; Charles H Anderton and John R Carter, "The
Impact of War on Trade: An Interrupted Times-Series Study," Journal of Peace Research 38, no. 4
(2001): 445; Katherine Barbieri and Gerald Schneider, "Globalization and
Peace: Assessing New Directions in the Study of Trade and Conflict,"
ibid.36 (1999): 388.
[3] Philippe Martin, Thierry Mayer, and Mathias Thoenig, "Make Trade Not
War?," The Review of Economic
Studies 75, no. 3 (2008): 865; Charles H Anderton et al., Globalization and Armed Conflict (Rowman
& Littlefield Publishers, 2003), 31.
[4] Dale C Copeland, "Economic Interdependence and War: A Theory of Trade
Expectations," International
security 20, no. 4 (1996): 5.
[5] Massimo Morelli and Tommaso Sonno, "On Economic Interdependence and
War," Journal of Economic Literature
55, no. 3 (2017): 1085.
[6] Johann Park, "Economic Interdependence, Polity Type, Conflict and
Peace: When Does Interdependence Cause Peace and Cause War?," Journal of International and Area Studies
25, no. 1 (2018): 21.
[7] Gearóid Ó Tuathail, "“Just out Looking for a Fight”: American Affect
and the Invasion of Iraq," Antipode
35, no. 5 (2003): 856.
[8] Saul B Cohen, "Global Geopolitical Change in the Post-Cold War
Era," Global Geopolitical Change (1991): 551; Rafael Reuveny and Heejoon Kang,
"Bilateral Trade and Political Conflict/Cooperation: Do Goods
Matter?," Journal of Peace Research
35, no. 5 (1998): 581.